843
FXUS64 KHGX 070543
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1243 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A DRY THURSDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ON A WET START TO THE WEEKEND WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EMERGING THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
- AREAWIDE RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES (WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- DRIER (AND SLIGHTLY WARMER) WEATHER RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INJECTS
DIFFLUENT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AS OF 11 PM CDT, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW ENTERING GALVESTON BAY AND APPROACHING THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE, ADVECTING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS
OVERNIGHT (LOW 60S NORTH/LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST) AND ALSO PUSHING
THE 70-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, SERVING AS THE NEAR-SURFACE INSTIGATOR FOR CONVECTION. A
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF THIS TYPE WILL ALSO FAVOR A MOISTENED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO RECHARGE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS PWAT VALUES FROM NEAR
1.25 INCHES INTO THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE (POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING
THE 75-PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR). MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AND REINFORCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
A FLASH FLOODING THREAT DUE TO THE EFFICIENT RAINFALL EXPECTED
FROM CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HOWEVER, TRAVELERS SHOULD PREPARE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS) THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRIER AND WARMER
PERIOD (TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S/UPPER 60S) BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, FUTURE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER NEXT WEEK AS THAT FLOW
WEAKENS.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
A MIXTURE OF CLOUD CEILINGS AND HAZE FROM THE SMOKE OF
AGRICULTURAL BURNS DOWN IN MEXICO. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FOR CLL/UTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS TO
FILL BACK IN AREAWIDE LATER THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH (OFFSHORE BY 04Z), WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
NORTHEASTERLY GENERALLY AROUND 8-12 KT WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS ON THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY
BETWEEN THE 11Z-15Z TIMEFRAME, BUT THESE DECREASED CEILINGS COULD
LINGER LONGER CLOSER TO THE COAST. IFR CEILING POTENTIAL DECREASES
AFTER 15Z, BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT LBX/GLS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING A
RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10. THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW
(~20%) TO INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AS OF 11 PM CDT, WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW ENTERED
GALVESTON BAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF THE
EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (NOW AT A 40-50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT) IS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD REQUIRING
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS COULD
STILL EXCEED 20 KTS. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE
GULF. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL WINDS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 64 76 67 / 0 10 60 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 68 78 70 / 0 10 60 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 75 / 10 10 50 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...CASSEL
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