409
FXUS64 KHGX 071131
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A DRY THURSDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ON A WET START TO THE WEEKEND WITH A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
EMERGING THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
- AREAWIDE RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES (WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- DRIER (AND SLIGHTLY WARMER) WEATHER RETURNS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS A MID-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INJECTS
DIFFLUENT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AS OF 11 PM CDT, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW ENTERING GALVESTON BAY AND APPROACHING THE
UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE, ADVECTING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS
OVERNIGHT (LOW 60S NORTH/LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST) AND ALSO PUSHING
THE 70-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, SERVING AS THE NEAR-SURFACE INSTIGATOR FOR CONVECTION. A
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF THIS TYPE WILL ALSO FAVOR A MOISTENED
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THAT WILL CONTINUE TO RECHARGE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS PWAT VALUES FROM NEAR
1.25 INCHES INTO THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE (POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING
THE 75-PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR). MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AND REINFORCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
A FLASH FLOODING THREAT DUE TO THE EFFICIENT RAINFALL EXPECTED
FROM CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST REMAINING UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THE SPATIOTEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, HOWEVER, TRAVELERS SHOULD PREPARE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS) THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRIER AND WARMER
PERIOD (TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S/UPPER 60S) BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARRIVES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FINALLY CONTINUES EASTWARD
INTO LOUISIANA. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER, FUTURE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER NEXT WEEK AS THAT FLOW
WEAKENS.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY ACROSS SE TEXAS THIS MORNING,
GRADUALLY LIFTING AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SKIES TO
SCATTER OUT A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, SOME LOCATIONS MAY
REMAIN UNDER VFR BKN/OVC SKIES. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE
EVENING AND TURN ENE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT THU INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. ON FRI, THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
TX.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
AS OF 11 PM CDT, WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS NOW ENTERED
GALVESTON BAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OF THE
EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (NOW AT A 40-50% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT) IS EXPECTED
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD REQUIRING
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS COULD
STILL EXCEED 20 KTS. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE
GULF. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL WINDS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 64 76 67 / 0 10 60 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 68 78 70 / 0 10 60 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 74 81 75 / 10 10 50 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
GMZ335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...CASSEL
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