940
FXUS64 KHGX 072252
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
552 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGEABLE. BUT LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER
TOTALS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRIER, BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
THE PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER SW CONUS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE INTRODUCING
INCREASED LIFT WHILE THROWING A SMATTERING OF VORT MAXES OUR WAY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE PWAT RICH ENVIRONMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST,
THIS SET UP SHOULD AT LEAST BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO SE TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A VORT MAX OR TWO OR THREE COULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR DEEPER CONVECTION, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT'S
UNFORTUNATELY DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. BUT IF I HAD TO GUESS, IT WOULD
BE SOMEWHERE IN OUR SOUTHERN AND/OR COASTAL COUNTIES, WHERE PWATS
WILL BE HIGHEST AND LIFT COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY. THE HARDER THING TO PREDICT IS THE TIMING. I HAVE BEEN
BURNED IN THE PAST FOR TRYING TO PREDICT EXACT THUNDERSTORM TIMING
IN A SCENARIO FEATURING VORT MAXES SWIRLING AROUND IN A MOISTURE
RICH ATMOSPHERE. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING APPEAR
TO BE THE TIME FRAME OF MOST CONCERN. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL
RECEIVE A HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM. BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD EXPERIENCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PERHAPS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURE
WISE, WE SUSPECT FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 (MUCH LIKE
TODAY). SATURDAY LOOKS WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA BY SUNDAY, WHICH POTENTIALLY SETS US
UP FOR A DRIER PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT NOTE I USED THE WORD
'POTENTIALLY.' THERE ARE A FEW THINGS THAT COULD GO WRONG IN THE
SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE FIRST IS THE PROSPECT OF A NW
FLOW PATTERN WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. THE
PATTERN CAN BE A SIGNAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, I AM UNSURE HOW LONG THIS PATTERN
WILL HOLD. SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
SUSPICIOUS TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY WITH THE PROSPECT OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE
SHOULD KEEP POPS LOW ON MONDAY. BUT AFTER THAT, THERE ARE MULTIPLE
MOVING PARTS IN THE PATTERN THAT ADD SOME UNCERTAINTY TO NEXT
WEEK'S FORECAST. THE NW-FLOW PATTERN COULD TRY TO HOLD AS MOIST
RETURNS. A UL SUBTROPICAL JET OVER MEXICO COULD DISRUPT THE NW-
FLOW PATTERN. THERE'S ALSO ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND BREAKDOWN OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE. A MORE
PERSISTENT RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST WOULD TEND TO KEEP US IN THE
PATTERN FOR LONGER. A RIDGE RIGHT OVER US WOULD MAKE US BONE DRY.
FOR NOW, THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AS MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND. INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST AFTER
12Z/FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 10Z-17Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY
INCONSISTENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT WILL START OUT EASTERLY IN
THE MORNING AND BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR VFR TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY, EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS FILL BACK IN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL VEER EAST THEN SOUTHEAST GOING INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF MODERATE NE WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH WINDS
VEERING ONSHORE BY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 77 67 81 / 10 40 70 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 77 71 83 / 10 50 60 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 80 75 82 / 20 50 60 60
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...SELF
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