090
FXUS64 KHGX 080509
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1209 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER WILL RESUME THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEFORE
DRIER DAYS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AREAWIDE RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES (WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
- AFTER SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE DELIVERS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
(30-50%), MOSTLY DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE SYNOPTIC ARRANGEMENT BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S WET START
INVOLVES: A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING WEST TEXAS
EARLY ON FRIDAY, A BROAD RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF, AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MORE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE/CAMS
ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE CONVECTIVE MODES AND DISTRIBUTIONS,
HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE MOST ELEVATED FOR THE
THESE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS. FORECAST
CERTAINTY IS INCREASING ON A MORE ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH THE THREAT CONDITION HINGING STRONGLY UPON THE
LOCATION AND RATE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL (IMPERVIOUS SURFACES
ARE ESPECIALLY AT RISK) THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST
PWAT VALUES RANGING AT 1.75-1.9 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR), AND DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WILL
ALL ADD UP TO MAINTAIN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WHAT KEEPS THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FROM BECOMING MORE SERIOUS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INVOLVES RELATIVELY
FAST UP/DOWNSHEAR VECTORS (OVER 15 KTS.), AND FAST LCL-EL CLOUD
LAYER WINDS REFLECTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WILL AID IN THE
PROGRESSION AND DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.
THE LAST ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROCEEDING SWIFTLY THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INFLUENCING SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG THE WAY. THE TEMPORAL
WINDOW FOR THE WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE BY MONDAY FOR A
DRIER START TO THE WORKWEEK AS RIDGING GRADUALLY DISPLACES
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
WILL RESPOND IN KIND (UPPER 80S/LOWER 70S, RESPECTIVELY) BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
MOST TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND OR LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AS MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND. INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST AFTER
12Z/FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 10Z-17Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY
INCONSISTENT ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION. WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, BUT WILL START OUT EASTERLY IN
THE MORNING AND BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR VFR TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY, EXPECT
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS FILL BACK IN AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE, A 30-50% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS CARRYING THE THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT ELEVATED POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY THAT RETURN BACK
ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THESE POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 78 68 82 / 10 30 30 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 78 71 84 / 10 50 40 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 80 75 82 / 20 50 30 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...CASSEL
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