622
FXUS64 KHGX 081201
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
701 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER WILL RESUME THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK INTO
MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEFORE
DRIER DAYS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AREAWIDE RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES (WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
- AFTER SUNDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE DELIVERS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
(30-50%), MOSTLY DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE SYNOPTIC ARRANGEMENT BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S WET START
INVOLVES: A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING WEST TEXAS
EARLY ON FRIDAY, A BROAD RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF, AND A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. MORE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE/CAMS
ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE CONVECTIVE MODES AND DISTRIBUTIONS,
HOWEVER, FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE MOST ELEVATED FOR THE
THESE TWO AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS. FORECAST
CERTAINTY IS INCREASING ON A MORE ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WITH THE THREAT CONDITION HINGING STRONGLY UPON THE
LOCATION AND RATE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL (IMPERVIOUS SURFACES
ARE ESPECIALLY AT RISK) THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST
PWAT VALUES RANGING AT 1.75-1.9 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR), AND DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WILL
ALL ADD UP TO MAINTAIN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WHAT KEEPS THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FROM BECOMING MORE SERIOUS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INVOLVES RELATIVELY
FAST UP/DOWNSHEAR VECTORS (OVER 15 KTS.), AND FAST LCL-EL CLOUD
LAYER WINDS REFLECTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WILL AID IN THE
PROGRESSION AND DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.
THE LAST ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROCEEDING SWIFTLY THROUGH THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY AND
INFLUENCING SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG THE WAY. THE TEMPORAL
WINDOW FOR THE WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE BY MONDAY FOR A
DRIER START TO THE WORKWEEK AS RIDGING GRADUALLY DISPLACES
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
WILL RESPOND IN KIND (UPPER 80S/LOWER 70S, RESPECTIVELY) BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE COVERAGE AND
EXACT LOCATION FOR THESE STORMS ARE NOT FULLY CERTAIN BASED ON
THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION
THAT WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL.
THERE WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND IFR TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE E THIS MORNING AND VEER SE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
VRB WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE, A 30-50% CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS CARRYING THE THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT ELEVATED POST-
FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY THAT RETURN BACK
ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. THESE POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 68 82 68 / 30 30 50 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 71 84 71 / 50 40 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 75 82 76 / 50 30 40 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...CASSEL
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