364
FXUS64 KHGX 081820
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
120 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND WITH A RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING AND SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- LULL IN RAINFALL ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST THAT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE AND CALMER WEATHER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF TEXAS WITH DERIVED
PWS AROUND 1.4-2.0 INCHES. ALREADY HAD OUR FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS PASS THROUGH SE TEXAS EARLIER TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AT THE TIME OF WRITING. EVEN
THOUGH CAMS PERFORMANCE HASN'T BEEN IDEAL PER PREVIOUS SHIFTS, THE
SLEW OF SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO FUNNEL OVER THE AREA ALOFT. BROADLY THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS PROGGED TO CONTAIN ~40 KNOTS OF 6KM SHEAR WITH BULK
SHEAR UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS. 3KM SRH REACHES 150-250M2/S2, DECENT
THOUGH STILL ON THE LOW END WITH STORMS MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE
UNTIL THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT BACK UP THROUGH THE AREA.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LOW, WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 500-100 J/KG AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PEAKING AT 6.8-7.4 DEGC/KM. DRIER AIR IN THE
MIDLEVEL, BUT STILL VERY SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER OF AROUND 13,700 FT. CAPE PROFILES IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO VERY SLIM, AND OVERALL SEEM BETTER CODED TO
HEAVIER RAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL HIGHER-END BULLSEYES FOR
RAINFALL, WITH SOME LOOSE CLUSTERING CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE AND
EAST TX/W LA. ONE ASPECT THAT MAKES THE FORECAST TRICKER IS A LINE
OF CONVECTION COMING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. TIMING DIFFERENCES
MAY LEAD TO A SLEW OF DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR HOW SUCH FEATURES WILL
INTERACT, THOUGH BROADLY THIS WINDOW LOOKS A LITTLE MORE PROMISING
FOR SVR WX WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY ALOFT.
OVERALL, PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS ARE OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY & SATURDAY, ALONG WITH MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE
STILL ON THE TABLE WITH THESE STORMS, MAINLY WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL. MANY AREAS COULD SEE LESS
THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL DUE TO LIGHT SHOWERS/LOW COVERAGE. SOME
SPOTS WITH STRONGER STORMS COULD SEE TOTALS NEAR 1-3 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS UPWARDS OF AROUND 4-5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN RAINS SOME TIME AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE BACK IN PLACE, THOUGH ONLY BRIEFLY. A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC IS PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SE TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MAKES
IT'S WAY OFF THE COAST.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE BREEZY, COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, USHERING
IN A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT EASTERLY, ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO REBUILD AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S/80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S/70S.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE COVERAGE AND
EXACT LOCATION FOR THESE STORMS ARE NOT FULLY CERTAIN BASED ON
THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE IS A GOOD INDICATION
THAT WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL.
THERE WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND IFR TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE E THIS MORNING AND VEER SE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
VRB WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
ONSHORE WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
SE TEXAS. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS GALVESTON
BAY, BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WINDS, SEAS AND
LOWER VISIBILITY FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A LULL IN
RAINFALL, AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH OFF THE COAST AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT, DECREASING AND SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 83 68 86 / 40 30 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 84 72 88 / 40 50 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 82 76 84 / 30 40 20 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...03
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page