280
FXUS64 KHGX 101739
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOTHER'S DAY SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BEFORE THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO EMERGE SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
- SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, AND BOTH ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL CARRY THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WORKWEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE THE MOST
ACTIVE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS DUE
TO A SWIFTLY-MOVING EMBEDDED TROUGH THAT IS FINISHING EMERGENCE
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
MORNING. ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGHING IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRIVING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ARRIVING LATER TODAY.
THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
CONSISTS/WILL CONSIST OF ELEVATED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5
C/KM AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2500+ J/KG, WHILE BULK SHEAR OF
30+ KTS WILL ALSO AID UPDRAFT SEPARATION FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION
(ESPECIALLY WITH ANY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT COULD FORM IN THE
EVENING). THE MAIN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO ARRIVE CLOSER TO THE EVENING TWILIGHT HOURS ACROSS PINEY
WOODS ZONES, REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BECOME A MORE PREDOMINANT THREAT OVERNIGHT AS THE LINE
OF STORMS CONGEALS AND REACHES THE UPPER TEXAS SHORELINE.
BY THE DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING, THE STORMS AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH ENSUING POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING SOME FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S/UPPER 60S RESPECTIVELY.
SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE
VEERING BACK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TOWARDS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BY THE END OF THE NEXT
WORKWEEK, THE 70-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM MAKES ITS RETURN WITH LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE VERY GRADUALLY RE-INTRODUCING SOME RAIN CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BY THEN, SOME TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS COULD REACH
THE 90-DEGREE MARK.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. ISO TO SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING NORTH OF I-10. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT,
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE LINE WILL MAKE IT. AT
THIS TIME, WE THINK IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST BY 09-11Z, THOUGH
WE ARE UNSURE HOW STRONG IT WILL BE. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE
IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE, BRINGING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE
LINE. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, BOTH FROM THE ISO/SCT ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE LINE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE THE MOST EVENTFUL ACROSS MARINE ZONES
DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STILL SEVERE) WILL EMERGE
OFFSHORE, PRODUCING SOME MODERATE DOWNDRAFT WINDS. AFTER THE
STORMS ABATE IN THE DAWNING HOURS ON MONDAY, POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BEFORE
VEERING BACK ONSHORE BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DRIER
AND MILDER WORKWEEK AHEAD. ALL POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 79 64 82 / 80 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 83 68 85 / 70 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 83 72 81 / 40 20 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...CASSEL
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