787
FXUS64 KHGX 111657
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1157 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
- WARM AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SE
TEXAS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THIS
MORNING'S COLD FRONT WITH PWS AROUND 1.3-1.5 INCHES. CLEARING SKIES
AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CAMS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW ON
RADAR. COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOO, THOUGH THESE WILL MOSTLY
LIKELY BE WEAKER & MORE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE AS WELL. AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR CAN ANTICIPATE OVERALL BETTER
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME. ON TUESDAY, A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE W CONUS/FOUR CORNERS REGION,
USHERING IN A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD SHIFT EASTERLY WITH TIME, ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN AROUND
TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH LARGELY SEA-LANDBREEZE DRIVEN INITIALLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO REBUILD AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH MID
WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S/80S WITH ISOLATED 90S
POSSIBLE, WHILE LOWS REACH THE 60S/70S. AROUND THURSDAY, THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY,
WEAKENING IT'S INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME DISTURBANCES/IMPULSES STREAMING OVER SE TEXAS FRIDAY & SATURDAY
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE SE CONUS SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH
WARM WEATHER AND ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO A FROPA ARE NOW OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT TO SE TEXAS TAF SITES.
THERE MIGHT BE SOME ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION TODAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH N-NE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUE.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHOULD SEE
MOSTLY SEA-LANDBREEZE DRIVEN WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. AFTERWARDS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY. MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS AND RISING RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 81 64 85 / 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 84 68 88 / 20 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 71 81 72 83 / 20 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...03
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