186
FXUS64 KHGX 130435
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK.
- PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADY CLIMB IN
HUMIDITY, TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER (MAINLY OVERNIGHT),
EVENTUALLY FOR SOME SPOTTY/ISOLATED, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS TROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ARRIVE NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS SHOULD KEEP BENIGN WEATHER IN
PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE PINEY
WOODS AREA AND LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND SEA BREEZE-LAND BREEZE DRIVE, SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVER SE TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE ITSELF WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN FROM SEVERAL IMPULSES AND
DISTURBANCES PUSHING INTO IT FROM THE WEST. MORNING LOWS FOR
THURSDAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY, CLIMBING TO THE
60S/LOWER 70S DUE TO STEADY ONSHORE FLOW. PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF I-10 & WEST OF I-45. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY, GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH ISOLATED
LOWER 90S.
BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
WITH MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING OVER SE TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE IS REDUCED,
THUS HIGHS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT DIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH ONLY
BY AROUND 2-4 DEGREES OR SO. MEANWHILE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN
UNINTERRUPTED, THUS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S AREA-WIDE DURING THE
WEEKEND. RISING MOISTURE WILL ALSO INTRODUCE SOME ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME AS VORTICITY IMPULSES STREAM OVER
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY, A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE FEATURES ARE
PROGGED TO SEND AMPLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SE TEXAS, PROVIDING PLENTY
OF LIFT IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW. PWS COULD CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.6-2.0" EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THIS PATTERN LOOKS
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL, SO WE SHOULD SEE A FAR AMOUNT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO FILL NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY, SENDING
A COLD FRONT TOWARDS SE TEXAS. PRESENTLY, THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO STALL OUT BEFORE REACHING SE TEXAS, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN A DAILY POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID WEEK.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
A WEAK LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEABREEZE IS TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INLAND. IT PROBABLY WON'T MAKE IT TOO FAR, BUT WITH SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO AREA. ANY FOG
SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 30+ HOURS. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
MOSTLY SEA-LANDBREEZE DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. AFTERWARDS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WHILE STEADY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND RISING RAIN
CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LIKELY PROMPTING
CAUTION FLAGS AT LEAST. INCREASING SEAS OF 3-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED AS
WELL, ALONG WITH A GROWING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS GULF-FACING
BEACHES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 61 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 66 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 69 85 73 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
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