780
FXUS64 KHGX 150540
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1240 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH MORE LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90-DEGREE MARK.
- A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME WEEKLY RAINFALL TOTALS AT OR OVER 1 INCH BECOMING MORE
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT
AND LIGHTER WINDS AS A RESULT. IN 24 HOURS THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND ONSHORE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
RETURN IN EARNEST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME (THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK). LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL ALSO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND
TO PERSIST AND EJECT ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, EVENTUALLY
ORIENTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, BEGINNING ON MONDAY
AND IN EARNEST BY NEXT TUESDAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
SUGGESTS A MORE DIURNALLY-INFLUENCED, SUB-SEVERE CONVECTIVE CYCLE
WITH SOME LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THEN (SOME
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S) AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 80S) AS THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-10KT. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME VERY INTERMITTENT, PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
FOR NON-METRO TERMINALS WHERE THE WIND BRIEFLY LAYS DOWN <5KT,
BUT THAT SHOULD BE THE EXCEPTION VERSUS THE RULE. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY AND EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO
~15KT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20KT
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE ARE SOME WEAK MID-
UPPER DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO PUSH OVERHEAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON &
NIGHT BRINGING SOME HIGHER BROKEN CLOUD COVER (15-25KFT). THOUGH A
FEW RADAR RETURNS MIGHT EMERGE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN'T
RECOVERED ENOUGH FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF ANYTHING FALLING TO
REACH THE GROUND (IT'LL PROBABLY EVAPORATE FIRST)...HENCE NO
MENTION IN THE TAFS YET. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
AS LARGE-SCALE SURFACE RIDGING BEGINS TO PERSIST AND BUILD
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, A LONGER ONSHORE FETCH IS ALSO
DEVELOPING FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. FORECAST CERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE (UP TO 50-75% CHANCE) FOR THE THREAT OF
IMPACTFUL WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA BY SUNDAY, WITH
CONCURRENT RIP CURRENT THREATS BEING OF CONCERN WELL INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOWER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS A RESULT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE
WINDS GAIN SPEED TO MODERATE LEVELS, BUILDING 4-6 FT. SEAS.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 71 89 75 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 77 85 79 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...47
MARINE...CASSEL
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