803
FXUS64 KHGX 160543
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- UNEVENTFUL, MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON WETTER, MORE IMPACTFUL
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- CONTINUED INTENSITY OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL DELIVER IMPACTS TO ALL
GULF-FACING BEACHFRONTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING
INCREASING THREATS FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO RETURN IN EARNEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR EAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. SUBSEQUENT WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE SURFACE
WITH THE 70-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM GRADUALLY CREEPING WITH MUGGY AIR
NORTH OF I-10 THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ESTABLISHING ITSELF
(BASE OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF EJECTIONS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
AS THE NEXT WORKWEEK BEGINS. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE
ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY (THAT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY APPROACH AND
NOT PASS THROUGH THE AREA) WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUSING/LIFTING
MECHANISM BY NEXT TUESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE UNTIL THEN AND ADVECTS EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA (AND
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES) ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW NIGHT. A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, PRODUCING SOME WETTING
RAINS, HOWEVER, MEAGER ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS WILL INHIBIT MOST
STORM INTENSITIES TO SUB-SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION THAT BECOMES
MORE SPATIOTEMPORALLY WIDESPREAD IN DISTRIBUTION AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. WITHIN CURRENT
DAYS 1-7 QPF TOTALS OF 2-4+ INCHES, THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
DISTRIBUTION APPEARS TO FALL TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
RESULT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND IN KIND WITH MAXIMUMS AND
MINIMUMS MODERATED NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK
(MID-80S/LOW-TO-MID 70S, RESPECTIVELY). RAINY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS NEARBY.
CASSEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GRADUALLY MODIFYING, WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A MIX OF SCT/BKN
1500-2500FT DECKS EMERGE. GUIDANCE MAINLY INDICATES THESE LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE, THERE IS A SUBSET OF
GUIDANCE INDICATING PORTIONS OF THE REGION SEE SOME INTERMITTENT
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW IN TERMS
OF WHEN/WHERE SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND TAFS
AS NEEDED. BY MID MORNING, WE'LL SEE SSE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25KT
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUALLY LIFTING CLOUDS AND A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FETCH IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GULF
DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST PLACING AND ELONGATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN A MORE PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION TO THE
UPPER TEXAS SHORELINE. CONFIRMED BY P-ETSS GUIDANCE, THIS WILL
INDUCE AND MAINTAIN MODERATE SEAS UP TO 5 FT. THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR MARINERS IN
ADDITION TO THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING), WHERE SUBSEQUENTLY STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE A PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR ALL BEACHGOERS TO BE AWARE OF.
CASSEL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 75 90 78 / 0 10 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 77 89 79 / 0 20 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 79 85 80 / 0 10 20 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...CASSEL
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...CASSEL
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