344
FXUS64 KHGX 030019
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
719 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEABREEZE ACTIVITY CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
AS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DUE TO STRONG WINDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. MAKE SURE TO
BE PREPARED FOR THE HEAT IF YOU PLAN TO WORK OR SPEND TIME
OUTDOORS.
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE GOING INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
MORE ROBUST SEABREEZE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TODAY, WITH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FAVORING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS BLOSSOMING
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROPAGATING BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. THIS AREA IS A FOCAL POINT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DUE TO ROBUST INSTABILITY PROFILES, WHICH
WILL TEND TOWARDS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE
LOWER, CANNOT RULE OUT THIS LINE OF STORMS MAINTAINING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, THUS THE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA HAS LOWER CHANCES FOR SEEING THE MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY
AS STORMS DISSIPATE GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SO THE
EXPECTATION AT THIS POINT WOULD BE INCREASING WIND GUST POTENTIAL
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE LATE THIS EVENING.
THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE OUT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA BEGINS ITS TREK EASTWARD.
THIS DECREASE IN SUBSIDENCE PAIRED WITH PLACEMENT INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND PW VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED MEANS THAT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN CLOSER. THE PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN AFTER IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO BY FRIDAY. MOST GUIDANCE TAKES IT NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT FROM THERE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON IF IT LINGERS
OR IF IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD. EITHER WAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND PW VALUES OVER 2" DOES EQUAL INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. THE PEAK OF
THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PW VALUES
POTENTIALLY NEARING 2.2-2.4". THIS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, SO IT'S NOT A SURPRISE
THAT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS ALREADY IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. PARTS OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY BE OUTLOOKED FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IS
THAT THIS MEANS WE'LL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
WE'LL TRADE OUT THE EARLY WEEK HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
YOUNG/BATISTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A LINE OF STORMS IS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION,
CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH UTS/CLL AND WILL BE PASSING THROUGH IAH
BETWEEN 1-2Z, AND THEN HOU BETWEEN 2-3Z. THIS LINE WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS (UP TO 30KT) AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY
DOWN TO AROUND 1-2MI. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARDS AND MAY ONLY RESULT IN A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS BY THE
TIME IT GETS THE COAST. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE STORMS PASSAGE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT A
PERIOD OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS (1000-1500FT) MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING UP TOWARDS IAH. EXACT
LOCATIONS OF THE POP-UP STORMS ARE UNKNOWN, SO HAVE KEPT LIMITED
THE MENTION TO PROB30S. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING
LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO EASTERLY WINDS. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE A
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING
OFFSHORE WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. WINDS TRANSITION BACK TO
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY STRENGTHENING NEAR THE
CAUTION FLAG THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OCCASIONALLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BUILDING SEAS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE OCCASIONALLY
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDWEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY, BUT EXPECT THESE CHANCES TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
YOUNG/BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 87 72 85 / 50 30 20 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 87 73 85 / 50 50 40 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 86 78 86 / 40 50 60 60
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...47
MARINE...YOUNG
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