129
FXUS64 KHGX 060827
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
327 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.
- HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- LOOK FOR INCREASING WINDS/SEAS/RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE COAST
STARTING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WPC HAS UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS, INCLUDING THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA, TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR TODAY. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FRIDAY'S RAINFALL
LEAVING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FAIRLY SATURATED
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 3-4"
TODAY. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS ALONG OR NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
WOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO RUNOFF, WHICH MEANS STREET
FLOODING COULD OCCUR QUICKER THAN USUAL. MEMBERS OF THE 00Z HREF
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED RAINFALL MAXIMA
EXCEEDING 4" TODAY, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THIS OCCURS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE WOULD BE
NEAR OR SOUTH OF I-10. THE HREF HAS PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL AND
GENERAL LOCATION FOR THESE LOCALIZED HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
WITH PW VALUES ABOVE 2" STREAMING IN AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER
INDUCES LIFT, RAINFALL RATES WILL PEAK IN THE 3-4" PER HOUR RANGE
ONCE AGAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO QUICK BURSTS OF 1-3+" RAINFALL
AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN SETS UP. IF THIS OCCURS
AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AGAIN, THEN WE WOULD SEE RISES ALONG
LOCAL BAYOUS/STREAMS IN ADDITION TO STREET FLOODING POTENTIAL.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, SO BE SURE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE
WAYS TO RECEIVE ALERTS.
AS FAR AS RIVERS GO, WE HAVE OUR EYES ON THE SAN BERNARD AND THE
LAVACA/NAVIDAD RIVER BASINS FOR RISES BASED ON UPSTREAM RAINFALL
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND TODAY'S ANTICIPATED RAINFALL. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, WE'RE ONLY LOOKING AT ISOLATED RISES INTO ACTION STAGE.
REMEMBER THAT YOU CAN MONITOR UPDATED RIVER FORECASTS VIA THE NWS
NWPS WEBPAGE (HTTPS://WATER.NOAA.GOV/).
BATISTE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2026
AN WEAKLY CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING NORTHEAST
THROUGH TEXAS AND WILL OPEN AGAIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
AND THAT SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WE
STILL HAVE ONE MORE DAY WHERE WE'LL HAVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY. HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING EARLY CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN TRANSITIONING INTO THE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TYPE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE GULF AND EXPECTING A
SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY WHERE HIGH PW VALUES ALONG WITH
TRAINING STORMS WILL BRING ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TODAY.
MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES. SOILS ARE GETTING FAIRLY
SATURATED AND IN URBAN AREAS ALREADY HIT WILL HAVE MUCH OF THE
RAIN FALLING AS RUNOFF. THE HARDEST HIT AREAS BASICALLY HAVE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE OF LESS THAN AN INCH. STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-3+ INCHES EASILY. THIS WILL
CAUSE STREET FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, RISES IN LOCAL
STREAMS/BAYOUS AND SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW POINTS ARE
IN ACTION STAGE SO IT WOULDN'T TAKE TOO MUCH MORE TO PUSH INTO
MINOR STAGE. SOME RELIEF FROM THE STORMY WEATHER WILL COME SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CONTINENTAL US. UNFORTUNATELY THE TRADE OFF ON THAT WILL BE
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES BUILD
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE REACHING 105 TO 108
BY MID WEEK.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON GULF FACING SHORES. LOCAL BEACHES HAVE HAD RED FLAGS
FLYING TODAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE WATER INTO THE COASTAL AREAS.
PLEASE HEED SAFETY ADVICE IF GOING TO THE BEACH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENDING FOR
THE EVENING. STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR LBX, BUT EVEN THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT TO BKN
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOIST GROUNDS, I AM EXPECTED MVFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO
EMERGE AROUND 4-6Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING
AROUND 9-11Z WITH CIGS AROUND 1000FT. CANNOT OUT RULE SOME PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS DOWN TO 700-800FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 17-19Z.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SUNRISE, AND THEN ADDITIONAL POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING (SIMILAR TO TODAY).
EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME, SO
HAVE PREDOMINATELY GONE WITH VCSH WITH PROB30 OF TS FOR MOST
TERMINALS.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2026
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEK AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BUT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 75 87 76 / 60 20 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 77 89 78 / 80 20 40 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 82 88 82 / 50 20 40 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BL
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...BL
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