864
FXUS64 KHGX 111121
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING HEAT RISK WITH "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES AROUND
97-107 DEGREES (36-42 CELSIUS) THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
- RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR GULF-
FACING BEACHES. RIP RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DAILY,
MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
IMMEDIATE TERM REMAINS, BY IN LARGE, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT WITH FIRM ONSHORE FLOW FROM A
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL
RIDGE ALOFT ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE AROUND 590-593 DAM, WHICH IS
AROUND THE 77-95TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. NAEFS SHOWS 200MB MEAN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS TO BE AROUND THE
97-99TH PERCENTILE, GENERALLY HIGHEST ON SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF
SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS ROBUST RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THAT
BEING SAID, AMPLE PWS OF 1.4-2.3 INCHES AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD
STILL KEEP SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, LIKELY
MANIFESTING AS BRIEF SPORADIC SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOP AT TIMES AS WELL, THOUGH HRRR PBL HEIGHTS DOESN'T INDICATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEA BREEZE DRIVEN ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY. GREATER
RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL POISED TO RETURN AROUND SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S (31-36 CELSIUS) WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S (21-27 CELSIUS). AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S (20-26 CELSIUS) EACH DAY,
LOWER 70S AT BEST WITH STRONG MIXING. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICES AND
"FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO REACH 97-107 DEGREES (36-
42 CELSIUS) OVER THESE NEXT FEW DAYS. WBGT HEAT STRESS IS FORECASTED
TO BE HIGH WITH EACH DAY AS WELL. SENSITIVE GROUPS OR THOSE NOT
ACCLIMATED TO THE SUMMER LIKE WEATHER OF HOUSTON ARE STILL AT A
GREATER RISK OF EXPERIENCING HEAT ILLNESS. STILL WON'T RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORIES, ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE
SURPLUS OF UNACCLIMATED INDIVIDUALS IN THE HOUSTON AREA. IF YOU PLAN
TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, AGAIN, MAKE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER TO
STAY HYDRATED.
IF YOU HAVE ANY BEACH PLANS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
MAKE SURE TO WATCH OUT FOR RIP CURRENTS. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD, IF
POSSIBLE, AND BE SURE TO AVOID SWIMMING NEAR ANY ROCKS, JETTIES, AND
PIERS WHERE RIP CURRENTS FREQUENTLY OCCUR.
WE'RE STILL EXPECTED A PATTERN CHANGE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SHOVE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER SE
TEXAS. IN ADDITION, THIS FEATURE IS ALSO PROGGED TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SE TEXAS BY AROUND. LREF ISN'T STOWING A STRONG SIGNAL
OF NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR KGLS, THUS THE CHANCES OF THIS
FRONT CLEARING THE COAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT HIGH. MORE
LIKELY THAN NOT, IT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE UPSTREAM, SUCH AS IN
THE GFS, WHICH CURRENTLY HAS THE FRONT STALLING JUST BEFORE REACHING
THE COASTLINE. STILL, THIS FRONT WILL HELP INVIGORATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY, INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTS. BROADLY,
ANTICIPATE DECLINING TEMPERATURES/HEAT STRESS AND RISING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST, MOSTLY FOR
CEILINGS. IT'LL BOUNCE BETWEEN THE TWO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT ELEVATED
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BUT OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF BECAUSE THE
OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW (<15%).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET. CAUTION FLAGS
ARE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS
ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. ADDITIONAL CAUTION FLAGS
MAY BE WARRANTED AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY THIS
WEEKEND AS SEAS NEAR 6 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RISING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS ANTICIPATED ALMOST DAILY FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 77 93 76 / 20 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 78 92 77 / 20 10 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 82 88 82 / 20 10 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...03
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