955
FXUS64 KHGX 140617
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
117 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S (31-36 CELSIUS) WITH
PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR 103-107 (39-42 CELSIUS).
- MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND, LIKELY
CONTINUING INTO PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED HIGH TIDES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
HOT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AS RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. MODELS
STILL HAVE MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 591-592 DAM OVERTOP THE AREA WITH
ONSHORE WINDS STILL PROGGED TO BRING ROBUST MOISTURE & WAA DURING
THE DAYTIME. THIS SURGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES AS WELL. WE'LL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
IN THE MORNING OVER THE GULF/COASTLINE, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREADING INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STORMS ALSO DEVELOP. MANY
SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEE SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH
SHOULD MOSTLY LIMIT THE HEAT STRESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
ANY AREAS THAT DON'T GET RAINFALL, OR RECEIVE VERY LITTLE, SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME PRETTY HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECASTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S/MID 90S (31-36 CELSIUS) WITH HEAT INDICIES
AROUND 103-107 DEGF (39-42 CELSIUS). THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS SHOULD COOL THE AREA SUFFICIENTLY TO AVOID THE NEED FOR
ANY HEAT PRODUCTS, THOUGH IT WOULD STILL BE WORTH PRACTICING HEAT
SAFETY REGARDLESS. MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND COOL OFF INDOORS
IF NEEDED.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN RAINFALL TONIGHT, THEN RAIN CHANCES
WILL START TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE TEXAS. PWS ARE PROGGED TO
SURGE TO 2.1-2.4 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PUSHING NORTH UP LONG THE TX/MEX COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND A DEEP WARM
CLOUD LAYER, ALL OF WHICH SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER SE TEXAS ON MONDAY, STALLING OUT OVER
THE AREA AND LINGERING THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC NOW HAS SE TEXAS
UNDER SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) TO MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, DECREASING TO A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THIS PERIOD ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
1-3 INCHES THOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THIS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER URBAN/LOW
LYING AREAS. MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS
AND REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!
DAILY SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A WEAK
LOW MAKES IT'S WAY UP THE TEXAS COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON
THE RISE ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF. HOT WEATHER AND
HEAT INDICIES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE POISED TO RETURN AS WELL, SO
CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY!
IF YOU HAVE ANY BEACH PLANS, MAKE SURE TO WATCH OUT FOR RIP CURRENTS
THESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD, IF POSSIBLE, AND BE
SURE TO AVOID SWIMMING NEAR ANY ROCKS, JETTIES, AND PIERS WHERE RIP
CURRENTS FREQUENTLY OCCUR. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES AND SOME ISOLATED
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTLINE AT
HIGH TIDE AS WELL.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
ELEVATED SE WINDS OF AROUND 10KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20KT CONTINUE AT
MOST TAF SITES. GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF AND WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST, LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE CWA. MOST TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPERIENCE THESE MVFR CIGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH LATE
MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR SITES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
THE CWA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW,
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20KT AND VEER TO THE SSE.
MLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FEET
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FOR GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 7 FT OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE
MID MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
SE TEXAS. A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WILL BRING
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS EARLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH ELEVATED TIDES AROUND 3.1-
3.6 FT (MLLW).
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 76 82 73 / 60 70 90 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 78 86 76 / 70 40 70 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 83 88 81 / 50 40 30 80
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ370.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...MLG
MARINE...03
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