322
FXUS64 KHGX 300000
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK TODAY, WITH GENERALLY MODERATE HEAT
RISK EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
103-108F (39-42C).
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THE SAL HAS BEEN ARRIVING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TX. SEVERAL SITES HAVE STARTED REPORTING HZ OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
IN ADDITION, SEVERAL AREA WEBCAMS REVEAL HAZY CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT, OPTED TO ADD IN A MENTION OF HAZE INTO THE WX GRIDS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING FALLS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
GMAO GEOS DUST CONCENTRATION FORECASTS. WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING
HAZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BUT THE CONCENTRATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK
TO BE AS HIGH.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE SAL AND CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO
WARRANT A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO. COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER
SPOTTY IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER THE WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A FEW
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF THE GULF BY
MID WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH THAT SAID, WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
RAIN CHANCES, GENERALLY 20-40% DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL,
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND LARGELY SEA-BREEZE INDUCED.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 90S
EACH DAY OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF
AT NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. PEAK HEAT
INDICES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, GENERALLY 105-
107 DEGREES. A FEW SITES MAY BRIEFLY HIT 108-109 DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OUR HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE SAL PLUME MAY WORK IN OUR FAVOR, AS
ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY MIX DOWN TO KEEP PEAK HEAT INDICES IN CHECK.
REGARDLESS OF HEADLINES, HEAT-RELATED PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL
DEFINITELY BE TAKEN WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-107 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES
AT IAH AROUND SUNRISE. THE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HUNTSVILLE AND COLLEGE STATION STARTING
AROUND 9Z AND LIFTING BY 15Z. THE EVENING WILL BRING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20KT NORTH OF I-10. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OUT BY MIDNIGHT
AND REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL MORNING THROUGHOUT ALL REGIONS. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5-15KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
WINGO/BAILEY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS TODAY WILL DECREASE TO 2
TO 3 FEET BY MID- WEEK. VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES TODAY WILL INCREASE
INTO THE LOW AND MEDIUM RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 93 78 95 / 0 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 89 83 89 / 0 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TC
AVIATION...BAILEY/WINGO
MARINE...TC
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