045
FXUS64 KHGX 050524
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICIES
OF 105-107F (41-42C) WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES OVER 108F (43C
+) ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METRO. CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES SLIGHTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK, REDUCING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE STOUT RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S HAS CONTINUED TO BREAK DOWN. THE TRANSIENT RIDGE THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO YESTERDAY
WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN HEIGHTS
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER COVERAGE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, HEIGHTS LOOK TO BUILD
BACK IN AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE SEEN
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS TO INTRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF
20% POPS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
PINEY WOODS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE 00Z CAMS WANT TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTH AND
THE SEABREEZE TO THE SOUTH INTERACT. THE 00Z HRRR IN PARTICULAR
DEPICTED ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HARRIS COUNTY THIS EVENING.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE OF STORMS DUE TO SOMEWHAT
LIMITED MOISTURE, SO POPS WERE KEPT ISOLATED WITH THIS PACKAGE. IF
TRENDS CONTINUE AMONGST THE CAMS WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE, SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO SCATTERED. HEIGHTS LOOK TO
CONTINUE TO FALL MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE,
MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108F
(43C +) ACROSS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP A DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE
TO HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, RIDGING
LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES
AND PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WITH THE SEABREEZE ALMOST CLEARING THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AT
THE TIME OF THE TAF UPDATE, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS,
WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR MENTIONABLE TS. TEMPO GROUPS HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FOR ALL TERMINALS, BUT WITH SOME SHOWERS W OF KSGR
AND THE SEABREEZE APPROACHING KDWH, WE'LL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO
SEE IF ANY AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT,
BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 09-13Z WITH SW'LY
WINDS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER 21Z, MOST WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S AT
5-10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK. OVERALL, GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3
FEET. ISOLATED COASTAL AND GULF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A GRADUALLY STEEPENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE INCREASING FURTHER TO THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BY THURSDAY. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 96 77 95 / 0 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 96 79 96 / 20 20 0 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 90 83 90 / 10 10 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...ENRIQUEZ
MARINE...WILLIAMS
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