546
FXUS64 KHGX 051659
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DAILY WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICIES OF 105-107F (41-42C)
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES OVER 108F (43C +) ARE LIKELY.
- ISOLATED (10-30% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES INCREASING SLIGHTLY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK, REDUCING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN/STORM CHANCES
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
RECENT GOES-19 CLEAN IR IMAGERY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWS A
FEW NORTH-TO-SOUTH ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, CAUSED BY A STORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS NE
AND FAR E TX OVERNIGHT. THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ENHANCE
SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30%) LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS STAY DRY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, FOCUS WILL
SHIFT ON A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RIVER IN N TEXAS. THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST, GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE STORMS PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES (MAINLY
HOUSTON/TRINITY/POLK COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADJACENT COUNTIES) BY
EARLY/MID EVENING. SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT BULK
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THEY QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA..THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE HRRR INDICATE INVERTED-V
PROFILES, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENING, AND WOULD SUGGEST
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL, ASSUMING STORMS CAN SURVIVE AND
REMAIN ORGANIZED. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE FAR
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1) OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH,
GUIDANCE (SPECIFICALLY THE 12Z HRRR) SHOWS A SECONDARY COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, BEHIND THE FIRST COMPLEX,
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THIS COMPLEX
IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND DECAY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY, HOWEVER, IT WOULD
LIKELY PRODUCE AND THROW ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR TWO INTO
FORECAST AREA, WHICH MAY AFFECT AND ENHANCE SEABREEZE/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUES TO BE THE TYPICAL SCORCHING SUMMER HEAT.
STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A
VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST REGION TO STRETCH AND SLIDE
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN SENSIBLE CHANGES WITH
THIS WEAK TROUGH WILL BE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
MORNING AND EVENING HOURS, AS WELL AS ENHANCED SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY
INTERACTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LIMITED
POPS TO AROUND 30-40% BOTH DAYS FOR NOW, BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED AND RAISED IF MODELS TREND WETTER OR HAVE A BETTER SIGNAL
FOR PREICIP. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY COOL OFF A DEGREE OR TWO
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, BUT TEMPERATURES LIKELY WON'T CHANGE TOO
MUCH, DESPITE. THE WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY TEMPORARILY SHUT-OFF RAIN
CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDING OCCURRING LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WHICH MAY INCREASE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR VIS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR MOST
SITES AFTER 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE NORTH. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED TO BETTER REFINE THE TIMING ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
OVERALL, GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 2 FEET,
OCCASIONALLY UP TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED COASTAL AND GULF SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A
GRADUALLY STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION WINDS AND SEAS MAY DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO STEEPEN, WITH GULF SEAS INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 95 77 95 / 0 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 95 79 95 / 20 20 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 90 83 90 / 10 20 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEJIA
AVIATION...CASTILLO
MARINE...MEJIA
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