946
FXUS64 KHGX 082314
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
614 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
- SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. LOWER, BUT NON- ZERO, RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY.
- A DEEPER SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS, INTERACTING WITH OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE PATTERN.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, OBS SHOW PW VALUES IN THE 1.7-1.9 INCH RANGE,
AND NEAR 2.0 INCHES CLOSER TO THE COAST. DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT IS DRIVING DECENT MIXING, ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (25-45 MPH) THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
A RINSE-AND-REPEAT FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED
COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNING, DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CHANCES WILL BE LOWER DUE TO A LACK OF
MOISTURE.
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR REGION WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR A DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE, COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS/VORTICITY MAXES ALOFT, WILL SET UP THE STAGE FOR MORE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (40 TO 75%) PERSISTING
INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
90S. HOT CONDITIONS PAIRED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND MORE GULF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PEAK
HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS (100-107F). TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEXT WEEK GIVEN HIGHER POPS.
JM
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY QUIET WEATHER
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA, WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT OVERALL DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN A FEW SPOTS.
ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE AT
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN CEILINGS OVER THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. ANY
CEILINGS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE
MORNING. THE SAL WILL MAKE ITS RETURN TOMORROW AND SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE OR SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME,
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW (BELOW 30%) TO MENTION ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SW/S THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH A SLIGHT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON LIGHT. OVERALL, VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS (GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST) AND SEAS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 FT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES) AND
SEAS UP TO 4-5 FT (OFFSHORE) LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, GRADUALLY MOVING FURTHER
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS DIFFERENT
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 97 76 95 / 20 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 96 79 95 / 20 20 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 91 82 90 / 0 20 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MEJIA
MARINE...JM
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