076
FXUS64 KHGX 090539
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1239 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
- LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
- DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING CAUSING RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THIS MORNING, A MID LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE ROUTINE
SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE
THAN WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO A DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH DRIER
AIR SITUATED BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 90S WITH 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10...LOWER
FURTHER INLAND.
TONIGHT, REMNANT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIE OFF AS THE
AREA BEGINS TO COOL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S WITH S/SE WINDS.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TRACK
WESTWARD AND INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL RETURN. THIS SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MORNINGS, TRANSITIONING INLAND
DURING THE DAY. WITH PW'S IN THE 2.1-2.4" RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-70%.
THERE'S NO SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING MECHANISMS IN TERMS OF A WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS FROM TIME-TO-TIME CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL AIRMASS.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK, AN EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CNTL US. WE'LL BE ON ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND SUBJECT TO A PARADE OF WESTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCES TRACKING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH IT...WITH CONTINUED
DAILY CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
SEASONAL SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES AS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM
100-106F OVER THE WEEKEND. VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SHOULD TAKE
PROPER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS BY WEARING LIGHT WEIGHT CLOTHING,
DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER, AND TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS. WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERIODIC RAINFALL, READINGS WILL LIKELY
TAPER DOWN CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE HIGHER COVERAGE RAIN DAYS.
LDAVIS/47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING
IN A FEW SPOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AT SITES KCLL
AND KUTS, MIST AND SCATTERED CEILINGS AT 1500 FEET REMAIN EXPECTED
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING. PATCHY MVFR VIS AND CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, HOWEVER THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
KEEPS PROBABILITIES NEAR 10% OR LOWER NEAR THE AIRPORTS. THIS FAVORS
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
A SAL INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH SHOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LID ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES BELOW THE 30%
THRESHOLD FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
GENTLE OUT OF THE SW/S THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE 12-17KT RANGE
SETTING UP IN THE COMING DAYS AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE SHOULD
SEE THE CURRENT 2 FOOT SEAS BUMP UP A BIT...CLOSER TO 3-4FT. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. MARINERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
SCATTERED, TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS, SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON A DAILY BASIS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 76 95 78 / 10 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 79 94 79 / 30 10 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 84 90 85 / 10 20 30 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LDAVIS
AVIATION...WILLIAMS
MARINE...47
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