523
FXUS64 KHGX 112323
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
623 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND (30-70% CHANCE).
- BETTER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, SOME POSSIBLY HEAVY AT
TIMES, IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY-TUESDAY.
- A GRADUAL DRYING/WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE SHAPE HEADING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHOWERS, SOME LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY, AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD, PUSHING FURTHER INLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PWS IN THE 2.0 - 2.4 INCH RANGE, A DEEP 700:500 MB
RH LAYER, AND STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW SUNSHINE TO CREEP INTO THE
COASTAL COUNTIES, ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN
SPREAD INLAND BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, A WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO START THE WORKWEEK. SOUTHEAST TX WILL SIT ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO A PARADE OF VORTICITY
MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT, RIDING EAST TO WEST INTO OUR
AREA. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, DEEP MOISTURE, AND A
LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY, AND ALONG A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HIGHLIGHTS THIS THREAT IN THEIR DAY 3, 4 AND 5
(MONDAY - WEDNESDAY) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, PLACING THE
REGION UNDER BOTH SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISKS.
BY THURSDAY, AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND, DRIER AIR AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN. HOWEVER, WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, AN ISOLATED,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EACH DAY.
JM
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HAVE SOME LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 EARLY THIS
EVENING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE REGION AND
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN TREND IN TERMS OF SHRA/TSTM
CHANCES (PRECIP DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LATE AT NIGHT THEN
TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE DAY). MOST PROBLEMATIC ASPECT IS
NARROWING DOWN THE MOST FAVORED TIME PERIOD(S) FOR ANY INDIVIDUAL
TAF SITE. AFTER COORDINATION WITH CWSU, WE'LL BE HIGHLIGHTING THE
AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD FOR MOST INLAND SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST - THOUGH SOME BRIEF CIG & VSBY REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY STRONGER CELLS. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS,
BEFORE MOVING INLAND DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR/AROUND ANY STRONGER
STORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS RESUME AFTER
MIDWEEK.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 92 76 90 / 20 30 30 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 91 78 89 / 30 60 40 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 89 82 88 / 30 60 50 80
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...47
MARINE...JM
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