044
FXUS64 KHGX 130000
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
- A STALLED BOUNDARY AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SE TEXAS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT ISOLATED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF SE TEXAS.
- A GRADUAL DRYING/WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE SHAPE HEADING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO SE TEXAS WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.1-2.2". THIS HIGH MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10,
BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS AS
WELL. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE PINEY WOODS REGION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS IS LIMITED.
A WEAK, SLOW-MOVING (AND EVENTUALLY STALLING) BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BE FOR MOST OF SE
TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS (NEAR 2.2-2.3") WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A LULL IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT CHANCES BEYOND WEDNESDAY ARE QUITE LOW (LESS THAN
15 POPS).
THE HIGH PWATS THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. MINOR URBAN PONDING IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT MINOR FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. OVERALL LOOKING AT UP TO 1-3"
OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-5"
POSSIBLE IF MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREA.
WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF OUR REGION IN THEIR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS:
- TODAY, 6/12: A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR ALL OF SE TEXAS.
- MONDAY, 6/13: A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR MOST OF SE TEXAS,
WITH THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4).
- TUESDAY, 6/14: A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR THE BRAZOS
VALLEY AREA, WITH THE REST OF SE TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 4).
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE COOLER SIDE DURING THE DAYTIME WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH MIDWEEK. WITH LESS RAIN
CHANCES HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
THE THREAT OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-90S BY FRIDAY, AND
THE PARTS OF THE REGION CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S BY NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN ARE VFR, BUT ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS FILTERING IN ON MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. THE NEXT ROUND OF SH/TS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY (A FEW HOURS EARLIER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST). CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST
MVFR UNDERNEATH ANY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS IS
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAS BEEN
COVERED BY A MIXTURE OF TEMPOS AND PROB30S. ACTIVITY BEGINS
WINDING DOWN AFTER 00Z/TUESDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 10
KT ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION AND BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS EACH DAY, BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THURSDAY, BUT VERY
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 89 74 86 / 30 60 70 90
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 90 76 87 / 40 80 60 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 89 81 88 / 50 60 60 80
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...FOWLER
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