100
FXUS64 KHGX 130546
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1246 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- A STALLED BOUNDARY AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SE TEXAS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE IN
THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT ISOLATED DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF SE TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SE TEXAS ON TUESDAY
AS WELL.
- A GRADUAL DRYING/WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE SHAPE HEADING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SE TEXAS AS WE
KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS CONTINUE TO SHOW
VALUES AROUND 2.1-2.2". THE HIGH MOISTURE WILL WORK IN CONCERT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO SE TEXAS AND WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY SET FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SOUNDINGS POINT TO AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN MINOR
URBAN PONDING AND MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE 1-3" RANGE.
GIVEN THE SATURATED PROFILE BEING OBSERVED WITH SOUNDINGS AND
LIGHT STEERING WINDS, STORMS WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED TOTALS OF UP TO 5" (ESPECIALLY IF STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS).
WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THEIR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- MONDAY, 6/13: A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR MOST OF SE TEXAS,
WITH THE MATAGORDA BAY REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4).
- TUESDAY, 6/14: A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR MOST OF SE
TEXAS, WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4).
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO
START, WITH A DRYING TREND INCREASING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COMBINE WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BOTH INCREASE GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPPER 90S THIS COMING WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE WEEKEND.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN ARE VFR, BUT ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS FILTERING IN ON MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. THE NEXT ROUND OF SH/TS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY (A FEW HOURS EARLIER RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST). CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST
MVFR UNDERNEATH ANY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS IS
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAS BEEN
COVERED BY A MIXTURE OF TEMPOS AND PROB30S. ACTIVITY BEGINS
WINDING DOWN AFTER 00Z/TUESDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 10
KT ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION AND BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND 2-4 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BY THE MID- MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY, BUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWER RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY THURSDAY, BUT VERY ISOLATED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.
BAILEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 89 74 86 / 30 70 70 90
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 90 76 87 / 40 80 60 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 89 81 88 / 40 70 50 80
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...BAILEY
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