856
FXUS64 KHGX 140548
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTER TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS WEEK. SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STREET FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- HOT WEATHER RETURNS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/90S AND HEAT INDICIES IN THE 90S/TRIPLE
DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
STARTING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDE.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS PROGRESS AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, LIKELY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES WORKED OVER FROM THE
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WITH PWAT VALUES STILL IN THE 2.0" RANGE, LOW PRESSURE OVERHEAD,
AND VORTICITY MAXIMA SWEEPING THROUGH, EXPECT SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONCE AGAIN,
SE TEXAS IS IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL PER WPC. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MOST OF SE TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 1-3" RANGE
ONCE AGAIN; HOWEVER, STORMS WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS COULD BRING
ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 3-7". PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STREET
FLOODING COULD OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS WITH POUR DRAINAGE. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF THURSDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY HEAT UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/90S. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER
90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, WE
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AS WELL AS STREAMER SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION, BUT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER TERMINALS NORTH OF AND INCLUDING IAH.
THIS COINCIDES WITH THE ONSET OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE AND IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD. THE TEMPOS
COVER THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS, BUT
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE DAYTIME HOURS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
BATISTE/WINGO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
S TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOME OCCASIONAL
STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS, SEAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE WEDNESDAY
AND TAPER OFF INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BAILEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 83 72 86 / 70 90 20 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 83 75 88 / 70 100 10 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 83 89 / 60 90 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BATISTE/WINGO
MARINE...BAILEY
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