460
FXUS64 KHGX 312137
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
437 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH VERY EARLY
SUNDAY.
- NEXT WEEK'S OUTLOOK FEATURES SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SUMMER PERSISTS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISING INTO THE MID 90S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THEN ON
SATURDAY I HAVE SOMETHING TO DISCUSS THAT ISN'T JUST HIGH PRESSURE
AND HEAT. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
WILL PUSH A WEAK "COLD" FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. BECAUSE THE FRONT IS SO WEAK, EXACT FROPA TIMING
IS STILL UNCERTAIN - BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO POP UP ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS REGION AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO POP-UP DOWN ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE COAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND A LOCALIZED DOWNPOUR WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVERAGE AND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. BUT,
WE WILL LIKELY STILL SEE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HAVE OPTED OUT OF ISSUING ANY HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TOMORROW DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FROPA TIMING - BUT, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS IF THE FROPA IS LATER THAN EXPECTED.
THIS "COLD" FRONT WILL REALLY NOT BRING IN ANY COOLER WEATHER - IN
FACT TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN BE A DEGREE TO TWO HOTTER ON SUNDAY
THAN TOMORROW. THIS IS BECAUSE WHILE COOLER AIR WON'T BE FILTERING
IN, DRIER AIR WILL BE ALLOWING FOR WARMER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
MONDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARING 100 DEGREES.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS WITHIN THE NORTHERN TAF SITES HAVE ALL BURNED
OFF. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A POSSIBILITY
OF TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATING FROM A
PASSING COLD FRONT IMPACTING OUR CWA ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST
SOUTHWARD LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PASSING
THROUGH CLL AND UTS FROM 13 TO 15Z AND CXO FROM 15 TO 17Z. AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES, WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL SHIFT IN A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SECOND SOUTHWARD LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
BEGINNING NEAR 20Z, POSSIBLY REACHING IAH AND HOU FROM 21 TO 24Z.
CURRENT MODEL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE PRESENCE AND STRENGTH
OF BOTH LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WARRANTING THE USE OF
PROB30. ADDITIONALLY, THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BRING CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. MODEL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CHANGES IN THEIR TRACK AND
STRENGTH.
JMG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW SEAS. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO
A STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 15-20KT, SO SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2-4FT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE INCREASING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS,
BUT CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW (BELOW 20%). A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH LOW SEAS.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 97 75 99 / 0 40 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 99 80 100 / 0 20 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 94 82 93 / 0 10 30 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...FOWLER
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