986
FXUS64 KHGX 130510
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1210 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY TODAY, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY.
- SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A BRIEF SURGE OF
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
- AUGUST HEAT WILL CONTINUE. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY FLIRT AROUND
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
CLEAR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
WARM NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS PWS DECREASE, AND WITH THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST, CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. WE
MIGHT SEE AN SHOWER OR TWO POP UP, BUT MOST OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND HOT. SPEAKING OF HOT, THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND
AND THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 103-107 FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TX, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY SEEING INDICES AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES. THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS WILL HELP WITH THE "FEEL" OF THE HEAT, DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE
THE EFFECTS OF HEAT STRESS WHEN WORKING OR SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE FRIDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND A
FEW VORT MAXES MOVE IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH A
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE DAY, THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR EAST MAY BE OF HIGHER INFLUENCE AND LIMIT SOME OF
THE RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA. FOR NOW, I HAVE KEPT 15-25%
POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND 20-30% POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL HEATING PEAKS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. WE MIGHT SEE THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY FLARE UP NEAR AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE. BASED ON
THE EXPECTED PWS (1.8-2.1 INCHES), STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, THE HIGHS MAY LOWER
ONE OR TWO DEGREES. I KNOW, NOT MUCH RIGHT? BUT...HOPEFULLY WE
GET ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON TO HELP WITH THIS BLAZING HOUSTON
HEAT.
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PWS LOWER AGAIN AND HEAT INDICES REMAIN
BETWEEN 104-108 DEGREES. MAKE SURE TO KEEP PROTECTING YOURSELF,
YOUR LOVED ONES, AND YOUR PETS SAFE FROM THE HEAT :).
COTTO
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
A FAIRLY SIMILAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
AND THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5-8KT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND GUSTS OF
18-23KT WILL RETURN BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12-15KT THAT PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD,
BUT LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE RETURN OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CLL, UTS, AND CXO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING (10-14Z TIMEFRAME) WITH CIGS AROUND 2000FT. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT CXO, THAT COULD RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS TONIGHT COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF FOG OR CIGS COMPARED
TO LAST NIGHT. ANY LOW CIGS OR FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN ANY TAF.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
CAUTION FLAGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 3-5 FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FEET FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 79 97 79 / 30 0 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 84 92 84 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...COTTO
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