811
FXUS64 KHGX 280023
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
723 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE SPREADING OUT OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL TO OUR NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE, A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER WEATHER, A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AIDED BY WEAK FORCING
FOR ASCENT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING AND WE SHOULD SEE A NOTABLE UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL REMAIN SCATTERED,
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO 40-60% LATER TODAY.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY WEAK WITH 0-6KM SHEAR <15KT
AS INDICATED BY THE LAST HOUR OF DATA FROM THE HGX VAD WIND
PROFILE, HOWEVER MID AND UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED. GIVEN MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 2500J/KG THROUGH PEAK HEATING AND MEAN STORM MOTIONS
AROUND 15 KT, WE MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THAN WE WOULD
TYPICALLY SEE IN A SUMMERTIME PULSE TYPE ENVIRONMENT. GOES DERIVED
PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.1-2.3 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL, ALTHOUGH STORM MOTIONS MAY KEEP
THIS THREAT LIMITED IN AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING ALTHOUGH WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FRIDAY
WITH THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION LIKELY BEING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER TODAY
GIVEN THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE CENTERED ACROSS FAR WEST
TEXAS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE WESTWARD, UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE
A BIT AND SPREADING INTO TEXAS BY TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY IT
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY TO THE EAST, BUT WEAK ASCENT SHOULD AID AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AROUND HOU N'WRD AND IS
PROCEEDING SOUTHWARD BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION HAS VERIFICATION TO PRODUCE VRB WINDS GUSTS UP TO
25KTS AND IS ANTICIPATED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 2-3Z THIS EVENING.
CXO/UTS/CLL DO HAVE THE CHANCE FOR BR OR MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING
HRS AROUND 12-14Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT. DURING
THE POST FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS SHIFT TO NE BEFORE VEERING BACK TO
ESE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OUT AND HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW ON IN-LAND TERMINALS THUS PROB30 HAVE
BEEN OMITTED FROM TAFS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ON FOLLOWING
TAF PERIOD.
CMW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATER
AT THIS TIME WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW 5-10 KT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD LATER
TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW 5-10 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FEET.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 99 76 97 / 20 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 97 79 97 / 50 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 89 82 90 / 40 30 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...BAILEY
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