546
FXUS64 KHGX 011146
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR THE TX/LA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR CHAMBERS COUNTY, THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA, AND THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 1AM TUESDAY THRU 7AM WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST RISK OF HEAVY RAIN
IS ALONG AND EAST OF I-45, BUT COULD FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW.
- INCREASING RISK OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 TO
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD MONDAY EVENING. THE STORM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN TERMS OF ITS GENERAL STRUCTURE, WITH AN EVIDENT
INCREASE IN CURVED BANDING ON BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE
CIRCULATION IS VERY SMALL, MAKING THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY VERY
SENSITIVE TO ITS SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE, OPENING THE DOOR TO POTENTIAL QUICK STRENGTHENING
BEFORE IT MOVES ASHORE IN THE VICINITY OF SABINE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM HAS A HEALTHY OUTFLOW STRUCTURE AND TPW APPEARS
ABUNDANT. AND YET, THE SYSTEM HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT
CONVECTION, WITH A CONVECTIVE CYCLE THAT MATCHES DIURNAL
PROCESSES AS OPPOSED TO PURELY TROPICAL CYCLONE PROCESSES.
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA HAS SHOWN THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DROPPED FROM ABOUT 1014MB LAST NIGHT TO 1004MB TONIGHT. SO WE ARE
EXPERIENCING SOME DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ONLY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT WE HAVE AS OF 11:30 PM CDT IS OVER THE LOUISIANA
COAST, WHERE A MODERATELY HEAVY RAINBAND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
NEAR 35 MPH. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION, THOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDES INDICATE A MOIST
VERTICAL PROFILE IN THAT REGION. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AS A 60 MPH TROPICAL STORM,
THOUGH IT MUST BE STRESSED AGAIN THAT THESE SMALL SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY TRENDS CAN BE VERY ERRATIC, PRONE TO QUICK SPIN-UPS AND
WEAKENING TRENDS.
FOR US IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS GOING TO BE
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINBANDS SETUP AND NEAR WHERE
THE CENTER OF THE STORM TRACKS. THE HIGHEST RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-45 TODAY. BUT AREAS TO THE
WEST SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS WELL. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF THE REGION IN A LEVEL 2 OF 4
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS
RAINFALL MAY END UP BEING LARGELY BENEFICIAL. BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6-9"+ ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH IS WHY MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION IS UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN BEGINS THIS MORNING
IN OUR SOUTHEAST COASTAL COUNTIES, AND GOES INTO THE AFTERNOON,
EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE INLAND AREAS OF THE WATCH.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE EASILY ACCOMPLISHED NEAR THE
CENTER TRACK AND WITHIN HEAVY RAINBANDS, ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE HIGHEST RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS
TECHNICALLY JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA, NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. BUT IF
THE SYSTEM CAN MANAGE TO SPIN-UP QUICKLY AND MOVE ASHORE A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST THAN PREDICTED, THEN THAT WOULD BRING SOME STRONGER
WINDS INTO CHAMBERS AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTIES.
AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND ON TUESDAY, IT'S CIRCULATION WILL
WEAKEN AND BROADEN, RESULTING IN AN "UNWINDING" OF THE BANDING
FEATURES AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY. A REMNANT SURFACE LOW MAY BE
IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LINGERING BANDING
FEATURES AND VERY HIGH PWATS. ECMWF / GFS (AI AND NON-AI) ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOWING AN ENVELOPE OF 2.0-2.5 INCH PWATS OVER OUR REGION,
WHILE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST VALUES COULD BE LOCALLY EVEN
HIGHER. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL THE LOW HOLDS TOGETHER, IT MAY HELP
TO ENHANCE A VEERING LL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND ADD A LITTLE
SHEAR TO THE LL ENVIRONMENT AS WELL. IN ADDITION, WE'LL TRANSITION
FROM THE LOWER CAPE INNER TROPICAL CYCLONE ENVIRONMENT TO A MORE
UNSTABLE OUTER RAINBAND-LIKE ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A FEEDER BAND
THAT COULD RESULT IN HEAVY TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ENOUGH
COMPLEXITIES EXIST IN THE FORECAST TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PIN
POINT EXACTLY WHERE BANDING FEATURES WILL SET UP. THE ENVIRONMENT
AS PREDICTED BY MOST MODELS TENDS TO FAVOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BUT I COULD SEE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH
A CONTINUED DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS,
THERE MAY ALSO BE A DAILY RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TS EDOUARD CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF
CAMERON, LA AT THIS HOUR WITH A SLOW DRIFT WEST-NORTHWEST NOTED.
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD INTO SE TEXAS THIS MORNING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. WESTERN RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT GLS
SHORTLY AND WE'LL GRADUALLY SHOW DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY WITH 5-6SM IN -SHRA AND A TEMPO FOR 2SM
SHRA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME TS
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IN OUTER BANDS WHERE LIGHTNING IS
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED, THE PREVAILING PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
GENERALLY BE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH
OR NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION
TRACKS TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED FURTHER FOR THE
18Z PACKAGE.
DUNN
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WILL PUSH INTO OUR EASTERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH WINDS OUTSIDE
OF RAINBANDS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WITHIN RAINBANDS,
WINDS COULD EASILY GUST TO 30-35 KNOTS. THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST EAST OF OUR WATERS, WITH A LANDFALL NEAR
THE TX/LA BORDER. BUT A SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST TRACK COULD BRING A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN OUR
EASTERNMOST WATERS NEAR CHAMBERS COUNTY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME CHOPPIER IN OUR EASTERN WATERS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEAS UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE OF HIGH ISLAND AND BOLIVAR. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN OUTER RAINBAND AS FAR WEST AS MATAGORDA. BUT THE
PRIMARY MARINE CONCERNS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN WATERS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
AND DAILY SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 75 92 76 / 40 60 70 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 78 91 78 / 80 70 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 83 91 83 / 80 50 50 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TXZ214-300-439.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ177>179-199-200-213-
214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-437>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ335.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ355-375.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...DUNN
MARINE...SELF
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