997
FXUS64 KHGX 020043
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
743 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS JUST OFFSHORE NEARING THE TX/LA BORDER
AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
CHAMBERS COUNTY, THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA, AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS.
- THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THRU 7PM WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN IS ALONG AND EAST OF I-45, BUT COULD FLUCTUATE DEPENDING ON
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM EDOUARD JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS AT THIS TIME.
TROPICAL RAIN BANDS ARE SPREADING INTO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TX WITH
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WE EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS THE REMNANT LOW SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE REMNANT LOW SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWARD
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING PEAK HEATING. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING RAIN BANDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITHIN A NARROW BAND FROM LIBERTY NORTHWARD TOWARD
HUNTSVILLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN A NARROW AXIS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FARTHER TO
THE WEST OF THE CENTER. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. POPS WILL
EXPAND OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER THROUGH PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY LOWER FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH INTO LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH INTO NORTH TEXAS
PRIOR TO BEING INFLUENCED BY AN EXPANDING RIDGE ALOFT. AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS
SHOULD LARGELY REDUCE THE FOOTPRINT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION INTO
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH STRONG HEATING AND AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE UPCOMING TAF
CYCLE. WE'RE PRIMARILY FORECASTING VFR CONDITIONS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AND ELEVATED WINDS TO DEVELOP AROUND ANY
SH/TS. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. THE MAIN IMPACT IN QUESTION IS THE SHIFTING
WINDS AS THE ROTATION TO OUR EAST PUSHES INLAND. ELEVATED WINDS
AND LOWERING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY WHERE
RAINBANDS SET UP. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT AS THIS STORM PUSHES TO
OUR NORTH, BANDING WILL OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF EDOUARD TO
IMPACT OUR REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHERE EXACTLY
THESE NARROW BANDS WILL SET UP, WHICH LED TO A BROAD INCLUSION OF
SHRA AND VCTS IN OUR TAFS, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-10. OUR SOUTHERN
SITES AREN'T OUT OF THE WOODS WITH SHRA CHANCES YET, AS SEABREEZE
INITIATION SETTLES BACK IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 20Z TO END
THE TAF PERIOD.
BSM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 0 TO 60 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...
RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST
EAST OF OUR WATERS, WITH A LANDFALL NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, WITH WINDS OUTSIDE OF
RAINBANDS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WITHIN RAINBANDS,
WINDS COULD EASILY GUST TO 30-45 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CHOPPIER IN OUR EASTERN WATERS, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEAS UP TO 5
FEET OFFSHORE OF HIGH ISLAND AND BOLIVAR. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
OUTER RAINBAND AS FAR WEST AS MATAGORDA. BUT THE PRIMARY MARINE
CONCERNS WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN WATERS.
BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR
GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND WAVE RUN-UP AT THE BEACH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF PORT BOLIVAR.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS.
JM/47
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE ALREADY IMPACTING
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A SWATH OF 3-6" OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS EXTENDING FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY TO THE
NORTHWEST UP TO HOUSTON COUNTY. ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 10-15" ARE
POSSIBLE. WHILE MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS EXPERIENCING ABNORMALLY
TO MODERATELY DRY CONDITIONS, RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO 3-
4"/HOUR, LEADING TO INCREASED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. BASED ON THIS
CURRENT RAINFALL FORECAST, WE ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RISES TO ACTION
STAGE ALONG AREA RIVERS WITH ISOLATED MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP.
THE PRIMARY BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE THE SAN JACINTO AND TRINITY
RIVERS, AND COASTAL BAYOUS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. IF THE HIGHER TOTALS MATERIALIZE, MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD IMPACTS MAY OCCUR. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR WEATHER UPDATES CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
ACTIONS ESPECIALLY IF TRAVELING AT NIGHT.
KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 94 76 94 / 50 60 70 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 77 92 79 93 / 70 50 30 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 91 84 91 / 40 40 30 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TXZ214-300-439.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-196-
198>200-212>214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-437>439.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ163-164-177>179-
200.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ438-439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ335.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ355-375.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...BAILEY
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