010
FXUS64 KHGX 021807
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
107 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE CONTINUED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY JUST EAST OF
CROCKETT WITH GOES DERIVED PW VALUES APPROACHING 2.3 INCHES IN THIS
AREA. WITH WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW NOTED, THE SYSTEM
WILL TEND TO MEANDER SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO EXPAND WESTWARD.
UNTIL THEN, FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RE-INVIGORATION OF
CONVECTION PERIODICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH AN EXPANSIVE CONGESTED CUMULUS FIELD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. RADAR IMAGERY
ALSO SUPPORTS AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR
LIKELY CORRESPONDING TO INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO AFTERNOON
HEATING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION, MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF HOUSTON AND TRINITY COUNTIES IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED SPOTS PICKING UP 10 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION
MAY PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AIDED BY A WEAK SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE MAY BE
LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE BROADER FLOW AROUND THE CENTER OF EDOUARD,
BUT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SIGNALING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION IN
A NARROW BAND IN THIS AREA. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD CERTAINLY BE
A CONCERN IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OVER A
MORE URBAN AREA, THE CONVECTION ITSELF WOULD LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST
GIVEN AMPLE MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY >2000 J/KG.
WE'LL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (~100%) NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS (20-50%) ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF I-
10 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION
SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD TRACK FARTHER WEST ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AND WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME STORM CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LARGELY BE ABSORBED INTO
THE MEAN FLOW, BUT A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE 700-500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL LINGER SOUTH OF AN EXPANDING RIDGE AXIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL ABOVE 2 INCHES, WE SHOULD SEE
ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TIED TO AN
ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. POPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVE HIGH BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE DOES EXPAND
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ITS INFLUENCE WILL PRIMARILY BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEAVING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX. AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A LACK OF BROAD UPPER
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
CENTER OF TD EDOUARD IS SITUATED ACROSS THE PINEY WOODS AND WHERE
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONSOLIDATED
TODAY. THAT SAID, THERE WE'LL VERY LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
FEEDER BAND DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION ON ITS PERIPHERY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT SPECIFIC TIMES AND INTENSITY AT ANY INDIVIDUAL AIRPORT
TERMINAL. AS SUCH, HAVE LARGELY BROADBRUSHED THE TAFS WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF FREQUENT AMENDMENTS AS NECESSARY. THOUGH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, KEEP IN MIND THAT DEEP TROPICAL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/SOME
LIGHTNING/REDUCED VSBYS & CEILINGS (PROBABLY MVFR) ARE ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE WHEREVER THESE HEAVIER BANDS DO SET UP. OVERALL PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...WITH
CONSOLIDATED REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY CLOSER TO THE REMNANT LOW ENDS
UP OVERNIGHT (MAYBE CLL/UTS TERMINALS NORTHWARD). 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF TD EDOUARD WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE FLOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KT WITH INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BECOME
1 TO 2 FEET LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW STORM
CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 93 75 95 / 30 40 20 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 92 78 94 / 50 50 20 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 91 83 91 / 10 30 30 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-196-
198>200-212-213-300-313.
GM...NONE.
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