442
FXUS64 KHGX 032316
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH
7 PM THIS EVENING.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARILY BE
CONCENTRATED WEST OF I-45. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON A DAILY BASIS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE SURFACE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL FEATURES NOW
LARGELY ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHICH IS CENTERED NEAR THE LEON/ROBERTSON
COUNTY AREA BASED ON GRK RADAR DATA AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A NOTABLE WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
HOUR AND PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE ENTRAINING
SOME DRIER AIR FROM ITS PERIPHERY WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW
LEVEL COOLING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS HAS GENERATED A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THETA-E EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION TOWARD GALVESTON BAY. A NARROW BAND OF STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS SET UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OF STRONGER
EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING WHERE MLCAPE IS >2500J/KG. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
FROM NEAR ROSENBERG NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF HOUSTON AND
BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR CONROE. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN PW VALUES STILL BETWEEN 2.2-2.4 INCHES. IN ADDITION, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIDED BY WEAK ASCENT
FROM THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE. FORTUNATELY, MOST OF THESE AREAS MISSED OUT ON THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM EDOUARD, SO ANY INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED. WE'LL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY
WEST OF I-45 THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
COVERAGE DECREASING DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
A SOUTHWEST MOTION AS UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS QUITE A SPREAD IN
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW, WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND CONTINUED HIGH PW
VALUES. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT AND ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND SOUTHEAST TX. WHILE THIS
DOESN'T SPECIFICALLY IMPLY THAT WE'LL BE WITHIN A REGION OF
ASCENT, IT SHOULD KEEP STRONGER SUBSIDENCE IN CHECK FROM RIDGING
TO THE NORTH. WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND A CONTINUED
RESERVOIR OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WE SHOULD
AGAIN SEE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE'LL HAVE 40-60% POPS.
NO MEANINGFUL CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS REALLY EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST TX REMAINING BENEATH DEEP SOUTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW THROUGH 500 MB AND THE STRONGER RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY
AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
FARTHER INLAND AREAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY POSSIBLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE MAIN CONVECTION TODAY HAS SUBSIDED WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LINGER AROUND UNTIL THE 1-2Z TIME FRAME IN THE CLL AND UTS AREA.
WINDS BECOME CALM OVER NIGHT WITH LINGER MOISTURE LEADING TOO THE
PROBABILITY OF BR AROUND CXO/UTS AROUND THE 10-14Z WINDOW. CURRENTLY
CLL SHOWS LOW CIGS, BUT THERE IS CHANCE FOR BR TO DEVELOP. WINDS OUT
OF THE SSE AND TS/SH CHANCES INCREASE AS THE SEA BREEZE ROLLS IN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATE TO BE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND S, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT PLACEMENTS REMAINS LOW. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO
BE MONITORED IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE. AS DAYTIME HEATING DIMISHES IN
THE EVENING CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DISSIPATE WHILE THE SSE
BREEZE CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.
CMW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STRONG STORMS.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 93 74 94 / 30 30 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 93 77 93 / 20 50 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 90 82 90 / 30 30 40 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-
196-198>200-300.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNN
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page