292
FXUS64 KHGX 081025
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
525 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND
AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED SPOTS WEST OF I-45 COULD SEE HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S AT TIMES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF 2-3" PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 105-108F RANGE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING INTO
THE 109-110F RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS. MAKE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY IF YOU PLAN TO WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTDOORS.
OUTSIDE OF TEMPERATURES BEING A TOUCH HOTTER, EXPECT SIMILAR
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF SE TEXAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
MOSTLY ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS AND EASTERN COUNTIES. ANY
PRECIPITATION FURTHER INLAND WOULD LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE SEA BREEZE.
MID TO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT WEST INTO THE
CALIFORNIA REGION AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND
BRINGS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. PWAT VALUES WILL JUMP TO
THE 2.1-2.3 INCH RANGE FOR MUCH OF SE TEXAS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-10. NORTH OF I-10, COVERAGE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY IS EVIDENT ON
SOUNDING PROFILES WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAIN
RATES OF 2-3" PER HOUR. THIS COULD LEAD TO WATER PONDING ON
ROADWAYS AND FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS OR IN AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE) AS
SEVERAL MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICIES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARMER SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND HAVE A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. ANTICIPATING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO REACH NEAR
GLS/LBX LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY IN HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE TO WARRANT ADDING
PROB30'S FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL AREA TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT
THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND
THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS STILL REMAINS CXO AND SOUTHWARD. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT.
CONVECTION SUBSIDES AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
TREND TOWARDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT HINT IN THIS TAF
PACKAGE.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LOWER END (20-30%) FOR TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
CHANCES TO INCREASE TO 40-70% ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NW GULF AND MOISTURE SURGES
INTO THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
STRONG WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS IN AND AROUND
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
RESULT IN STRONGER AND MORE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
BAILEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 76 96 76 / 20 0 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 79 93 78 / 20 10 50 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 83 90 82 / 20 30 50 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...BAILEY
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