078
FXUS64 KHGX 101016
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
516 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND
AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WX PATTERN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. STILL LOOKING AT A GENERAL MID LEVEL WEAKNESS STRETCHING
ACROSS THE REGION, SANDWICHED BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE EAST & WEST.
PW'S SHOULD REMAIN AT, OR ABOVE, 2" TODAY AND FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD AGAIN SEE THE
HIGHER OVERALL COVERAGE WITH THE SEABREEZE & BAYBREEZE COMING INTO
PLAY, BUT CAMS HAVE BEEN UNDERDOING CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE REGION SO HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A TOUCH THERE. WE SAW A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG CELLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME 40MPH WINDS, PEA
SIZE HAIL, AND 2-3" RAIN RATES. THOSE WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE - BUT
NOT THE RULE.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY, IT APPEARS THE SHEAR/TROF AXIS MIGHT BECOME
SITUATED MORESO ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHICH COULD
LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY BUT MAINTAIN SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FURTHER SSE. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EASTERN MID LEVEL
RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION AND NUDGES ANY REMNANT
WEAKNESS TO THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE SOME
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND RAIN CHANCES (BUT
NOT ELIMINATED) AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID AND LATE PARTS OF THE WORK
WEEK. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ALONG THE COAST AND
REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS IAH FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS SPORADIC COVERAGE OF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PUSH
FURTHER INLAND BY THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE PUSHING INLAND. PROB30 OR TEMPO
GROUPS REFLECT THE MOST CONFIDENT WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
AND ARE A MIXTURE OF LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. IN GENERAL, TERMINALS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
BUT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. GUSTY WINDS AND
REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR ANY
STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6-10 KT. CONVECTION
SUBSIDES AFTER SUNSET AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TREND TOWARDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RINSE
AND REPEAT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST WE
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND SEAS TONIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND (10-15KT AND 2-4FT) VERSUS THE EVEN LOWER VALUES WE'VE SEEN
AS OF LATE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE DODGING THE LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE
SECOND DAY IN A ROW WE'VE RECEIVED REPORTS OF COASTAL
FUNNELS/WATERSPOUTS, SO WITH A MOSTLY UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT WE
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF A FEW MORE TODAY. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 75 96 76 / 30 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 77 93 78 / 40 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 82 90 83 / 50 30 50 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...47
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