605
FXUS64 KHGX 110544
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY STRONGER COASTAL/OFFSHORE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INLAND
AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MID-UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OK/AR REGION SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA, THERE REMAINS A LINGERING TROF/WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD A BIT LONGER THRU THE WEEKEND.
LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WE'RE ANTICIPATING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
SUNRISE. SOME OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A FEW OF THE
EMBEDDED COASTAL CELLS COULD PACK A PUNCH BETWEEN ABOUT 4AM-1PM WITH
30-45MPH WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY ISSUE. IN TERMS
OF HEAVY RAIN, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW QUICK COUPLE OF
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD NEAR SOME OF OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES - ALBEIT IT SHOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED AND WHEREVER ANY
STRONGEST ACTIVITY MATERIALIZES. THIS PRECIP SHOULD EVENTUALLY
EXPAND INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND WE GET MORE DAYTIME HEATING.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY UNDERESTIMATED THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP
MOVEMENT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH THE SHEAR AXIS SHOULD BE
POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND...WHICH
MAY END UP LIMITING POPS ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS.
THAT SAID, FEEL BETTER MENTIONING AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES
CONSIDERING RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE AND UNCERTAINTY. FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA - MORE OF THE SAME WX THRU THE WEEKEND.
ONE THING FOLKS MIGHT WANT TO CONSIDER THIS WEEKEND WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS (FOOTBALL GAMES, ETC) WILL BE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105-108F RANGE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS AND FORCE THE CURRENT LINGERING
WEAKNESS OUT OF THE AREA. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS AND LOWER (BUT NON-
ZERO) RAIN CHANCES, LOOK FOR TEMPS TO WARM BACK UP CLOSER TO THE MID
90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS 74-80 INTO MIDWEEK. THEN THURS-FRI,
ANOTHER INVERTED TROF TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE AND TOWARD THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AND POSSIBLY BRINGS SOME HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. 47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD DECKS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1500-2000FT NOW THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS
EARLY MORNING PERIOD, THOUGH OUTSIDE OF KCXO, FL IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL/SHORT LIVED (IF ANY). SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST FRIDAY MORNING, MOVING INLAND THAT AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPPER OFF INTO
FRIDAY EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN.
03
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
LET'S KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BETWEEN ABOUT SUNRISE TO AROUND 1PM.
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED WINDS GUSTS TO, OR ABOVE, 35 KNOTS MAY BE
A POSSIBILITY IN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT, ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
THE PAST FEW DAYS (MOSTLY 10-15KT, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME 15-20KT
IN THE WATERS SOUTH AND WEST OF FREEPORT TONIGHT). SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 76 98 76 / 20 20 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 78 95 78 / 60 20 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 91 83 / 80 20 30 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47
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