140
FXUS64 KHGX 282348
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, PEAKING
FROM WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS ON TAP BEFORE THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO BECOME MORE CLOUDY, RAINY, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER...
LOOKING AT WHERE THINGS ARE TODAY...WE HAVE THE RIDGE AXIS
BISECTING THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH
MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE PACIFIC. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT
WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD. ONCE THE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE MET BY WHAT WILL
THEN BE THE REMNANTS OF POLO FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA
(HURRICANE POLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND INTO MEXICO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE AND INTERACTS
WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN). POLO'S REMNANTS WILL MERGE INTO THE
OVERALL FLOW OF THIS TROUGH AND CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SO, FOR TUESDAY, EXPECTING SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO STILL HAVE INFLUENCE
FROM THE RIDGE AS THE AXIS MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THAT TIME.
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S, AND WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY, EXPECT TO SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S
TO AROUND 105F. OUR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES IN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY, THE MID- UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO AND
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF TEXAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLOWING DOWN ON APPROACH TO NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH, ALONG WITH
POLO'S REMNANTS WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO THE MID-UPPER LEVELS FROM
THE PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. AS A RESULT WE
WILL SEE PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0". WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE, BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE PEAK RAINFALL DAYS FOR THIS
EVENT. AT THIS POINT MODELS SHOW A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL CONSEQUENTLY RESULT IN PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2.5"
(AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER THIS IS AROUND 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL). THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
WPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY, AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA (INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HOUSTON) ON THURSDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING FORECAST,
AND WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE TROUGH SLOWS DOWN,
WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS, AND FOR HOW LONG AS WELL AS HOW
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE HILL COUNTRY AREA BEHAVE.
GUIDANCE HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
WESTWARD (HILL COUNTRY NEWARD INTO DALLAS RECEIVING THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS); HOWEVER, HI-RES GUIDANCE WILL PROVIDE MORE INSIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MOST OF THE AREA SEEING
AT LEAST 1-2" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS SEEING AROUND
3-4". CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS PERTAINING TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WHERE ANY OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY OCCUR REMAIN LOW.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR UPDATES.
RAIN CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE LINGERS AND THE FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE 80S THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.
BAILEY
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST CYCLE. WINDS ARE FROM THE SE
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER BY THE COAST AND BAYS. WINDS
WILL RELAX TONIGHT BETWEEN 2-6 KTS BY 02-05Z. AROUND SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY, BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ISOLATED
POCKETS OF MORNING MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST OF I-45,
AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. BY THIS TIMES, WINDS PICK BACK UP OUT
OF THE SE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. AROUND 18Z TUESDAY, WINDS BEGIN GUSTING
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS, AND LAST UNTIL LATE EVENING. POPS ARE LOW (10-
30%) MAINLY EAST OF I-45 AND SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGHOUT TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT AN ISOLATED SEA BREEZE STORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF ANY AFTERNOON TS/SH DEVELOPMENT
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BSM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST SOMETIME UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THEREFORE, A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, PEAKING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS (UP TO 7-8FT) ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 96 75 96 / 0 10 10 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 93 78 93 / 0 10 20 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 88 83 89 / 0 30 40 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BAILEY
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...BAILEY
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