240
FXUS64 KHGX 071813
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
113 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH MORE SUN, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES,
THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER.
- CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OFFSHORE.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS (WINDS/SEAS) ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES,
MORE SO TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK FROM A NEARBY TROPICAL
SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
MODESTLY CALM & DRIER WX IS STILL SLATED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. PWS
HAVE GRADUALLY DECLINED FROM YESTERDAY, WITH SATELLITE DERIVED TPW
SHOWING VALUES OF ~1.0 INCH NEAR COLLEGE STATION AND ~1.7 INCHES AT
THE COASTLINE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE PROGGED PASS OVERHEAD TODAY
FOLLOWING THE TROUGHING ALOFT, THOUGH CAPPING AROUND 800-750MB
SHOULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE. SOME SHOWERS COULD FORM
UNDER THE CAP, THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
COASTAL AREAS, WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPER. SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF
CONVERGENCE, SO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ISN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY FEATURE SIMILAR WEATHER TO THAT OF TODAY,
THOUGH WITH SOME PATTERN CHANGES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
STATE SHOULD DEEPEN WHILE ISAIAS REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH AND
TURNS NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD FUNNEL A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR INTO SE TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING INLAND
RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED OVER THE COAST AND SLIM TO NONE INLAND. AS
ISAIAS INTENSIFIES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO TIGHTEN AS
WELL, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH DISTANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS, INCLUDING ELEVATED
SEAS, INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES.
BY FRIDAY, ISAIAS SHOULD BE AROUND THE CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL GULF,
CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISAIAS WILL HAVE
LARGER INFLUENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL-SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA,
BACKING WINDS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODELS SHOW HIGHER PWS
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST, SO RAIN CHANCES WON'T BE COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION, THOUGH INLAND AREAS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN DRY INTO
THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN AROUND SUNDAY, USHERING IN WAA &
MOISTURE RETURN INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERTOP SE TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES ALSO MAKE A RETURN AS WELL.
03
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. NE
WINDS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE RELAXING TO LGT AND VRB DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WINDS PICK BACK UP TO THE NE.
CMW
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES A
HURRICANE. ISAIAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS, MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, INCREASING WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
TO BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST.
CAUTION FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TAKING EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS AND SEAS RISE TO 6-9 FEET. ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (ABOVE 3.5 FT MLLW) AND INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE HEADING INTO SUNDAY.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FULL STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISAIAS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS OCCURING FURTHER OFF THE COAST IN THE
LIGHTERING AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE, THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONFIGURATION MAY NEED TO BE REFINED.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 68 94 67 92 / 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 89 78 87 / 0 0 10 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ350-355-370-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...CMW
MARINE...03
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