554
FXUS64 KHGX 102340
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
640 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WAVES CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, A
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- LOWER HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT
LOWS BUT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
DAILY.
- COLD FRONT ON THE HORIZON... GENERALLY AROUND FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
COOLER FALL TEMPS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS STRONGHOLD OVER SE TX
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST; HOT AND DRY. A PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ON TAP, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S/ LOW 90S, AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/ LOW 70S, PLUS
LOW HUMIDITY. LIGHT WINDS VEER TO THE SE TODAY (BREEZIER WINDS
ALONG THE COAST), AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES BY
MONDAY, INCREASING HUMIDITY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS WEEK (SORRY... I TOO WAS ENJOYING THE HINTS OF FALL). WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE STARTING ON
MONDAY, THOUGH THE RIDGE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. SOME SHOWERS/
STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON, THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A SIGNAL FOR A COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NW NEXT WEEKEND. THE REAL FALL
TEMPS ARE ON THEIR WAY! SINCE IT IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST, THE ACTUAL TEMPS AND TIMING OF THE FRONT ARE UNCERTAIN.
WE WILL CERTAINLY KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MLG
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. KCLL MAY SEE
LIGHT PATCHY FOG FROM 12Z TO 14Z WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 - 12 KNOTS STARTING AT AROUND 18Z
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
BAILEY/JONES
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS OF 4-5 FT AND ENE WINDS AROUND
15 KTS. THERE IS A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SETTLING IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE. WINDS VEER TO THE SE BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT 10-15
KT. SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, SE WINDS AND WAVES
SLIGHTLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY FOR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. RAIN
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL TODAY, THOUGH A FEW OFFSHORE SHOWERS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND RAIN
CHANCES START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY.
MLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 84 80 86 / 0 0 20 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MLG
AVIATION...BAILEY/JONES
MARINE...BAILEY
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