092
FXUS63 KICT 141743
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
-TURNING MUCH COLDER TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF
YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL ALLOW
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE RETURN TO THE REGION FRI-SAT AND
VALUES WERE NUDGED UPWARDS.
A VIGOROUS AND COMPACT MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE
NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO
THE AREA. EPS/GEFS RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GENERAL 2 INCH
RAINFALL FOR A LARGE SWATH OF OUR AREA. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 1.6" RANGE (90TH PERCENTILE FOR KTOP IS 0.86"). THE ECMWF
EFI AND SOT'S ALSO SUPPORTS AN ANOMALOUS PRECIPITATION EVENT WHEN
COMPARED TO M-CLIMATE DISTRIBUTION. QPF EFI VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE
ABOVE .8 SIGNIFYING THAT VERY UNUSUAL QPF IS LIKELY WHILE THE SOTS
IS 2.
AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO TUE
WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT.
A REINFORCING TROUGH MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A PATTERN THAT
WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. WE COULD ALSO SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID
PERIOD WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.
KED
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DRIVE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
INTO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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