660
FXUS63 KICT 152334
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS TOMORROW WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH
CHURNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS UPPER RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGH SITUATED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES THE
SCENE THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS. AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH HAS
WORKED TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND RESULTED IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH IN CENTRAL
KANSAS.
TODAY'S WINDS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
BEGINS TO STALL OVER KANSAS, AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
(MIDDLE 60S) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASING COLUMN
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN ONCOMING UPPER WAVE WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH
850 MB WAA TO INTRODUCE LOW (15%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPECT TO
REMAIN DRY.
MID-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS (NAEFS/ECMWF) REMAINS CONFIDENT
IN PW ANOMALIES LOCATED OUTSIDE OF EXISTING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH TRENDS CONTINUING TO POSITION THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEEDING 1", WITH NBM PROBABILITIES INDICATING REASONABLE CHANCES
(>50%) OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2" IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THEREFORE, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY TUESDAY AND LEAVE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WILL ENTER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A SECOND WEAKER UPPER TROUGH AND RESULT
IN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (40S TO LOW 50S). STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT APPEARS LIKELY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, SUGGESTING THAT
THE REGION WILL LIKELY LOOK TO STAY DRY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY, A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. BY 16Z SATURDAY MORNING, LLWS SHOULD
SUBSIDE. MEANWHILE, SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY OUT
OF THE SOUTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PERSIST FROM
NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JC
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