490
FXUS63 KICT 160930 AAA
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
- A STRAY STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
AS OF 330 AM, A WESTERN CONUS MIDLEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
AND GLIDE EASTWARD. WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION, A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH A STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN-PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AT THIS HOUR, SURFACE
WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, A STRAY SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE
COLUMN.
BIG CHANGES ARE IN-STORE BY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY, AS THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH FURTHER ADVANCES TOWARD THE
PLAINS. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA REMAIN ALIGNED WITH
AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PW VALUES
CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1.25 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO NEAR 1.75"
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THESE PW VALUES ARE QUITE RARE
FOR MID TO LATE NOVEMBER AND IS CONVEYED WITH THESE VALUES BEING IN
THE 4 TO 5 STANDARD DEVIATION RANGE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS WAA AND SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE
PLAINS WITH AN INITIAL SPEED MAX TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY.
MUCH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND TRACKS
FROM WEST TX THROUGH EASTERN KS. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. LAPSE RATE PROFILES WILL STEEPEN WITH THE
MIDLEVEL LOW PASSAGE. IN ADDITION, THE STRONGEST WAA AND HEIGHT
FALLS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND
MAY FOSTER A SHORT WINDOW FOR JUST ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT IS STRONGLY SHEARED AND WOULD SUPPORT A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR 2. AT THIS POINT,
ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS EAST OF I-135. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL DEPART THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD, BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS
LIKELY TO RECEIVE 1-3". THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE THE LATEST SREF/EPS/NBM
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2" ARE HIGHEST (>80%).
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE, THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S/30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. LLWS SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THESE AREAS BY 14-16Z SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE QUITE
BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS TIME, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC
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