004
FXUS63 KICT 170448
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1048 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY, EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF SALINA TO WICHITA.
- MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO TUESDAY THRU THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INITIAL ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
THIS APPEARED TO BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE 700 MB WHERE VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON SHORT TERM RAP/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
WHILE THIS AREA WILL SHIFT OFF INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON, THE RAP/NAM DEPICT ANOTHER AREA OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTING IN WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY
LATE TONIGHT, SO WILL SHOW SLIGHT POPS AFT 09Z IN MAINLY
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING WITH BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWS/STALLS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF DIGGING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
TROF REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS IT MOVES
INTO KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SEASONALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY. QPF AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES STILL
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LIMITED INSOLATION IN THE WARM
SECTOR LOOKS TO MUTE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (MAINLY <1000 J/KG)
MONDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR,
THOUGH GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOOKS WARRANTED PER THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. SOME RAIN WILL
LIKELY LINGER LONGEST INTO MONDAY EVENING WITHIN THE TRAILING
DEFORMATION ZONE AS IT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE A
BLUSTERY AND COLDER/DRIER ADVECTION REGIME SETS IN MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEASONALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A DEEPER LONGWAVE/CLOSED UPPER LOW EVOLVES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS KEEPING A COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN
KANSAS.
DARMOFAL
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KS.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST AND IS
CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH KRSL. STILL LOOKING FOR LOWERING
CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS GENERALLY AFTER 10Z WITH KICT-KHUT
BEING THE SITES MOST LIKELY AFFECTED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
ENOUGH TO GO WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT KICT AROUND 12Z ALONG WITH
SOME BR. ALSO INTRODUCED SOME IFR CIGS AT KHUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER. ALSO THINK THAT WE MAY SEE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE FLINT HILLS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF
SITES. CIGS SHOULD CLIMB TO ABOVE IFR LEVELS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH SUN EVENING, WITH ONLY KICT BEING AFFECTED BEFORE
06Z.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WILL RESULT IN RISES ON MANY
MAIN-STEM RIVERS AND CREEKS ON MONDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL IN THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, COMBINED
WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MAY RESULT IN
SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. IF CONFIDENCE REMAIN HIGH ON THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL, A FLOOD WATCH MAY ISSUED WITH LATER
FORECASTS.
KED
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...RBL
HYDROLOGY...KED
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