496
FXUS63 KICT 171114
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
- A STRAY STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ASCENT FROM A 500 MB SPEED MAX. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP
TO DIME SIZE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR 500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS LEAD SPEED MAX HAS ADVANCED A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION FOR NEAR SALINA THROUGH PRATT. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CREATE A MODEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL KS
TO NEAR 70 ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.
THE WELL-ADVERTISED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL FURTHER ADVANCES TOWARD THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA
REMAIN ALIGNED WITH AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE
MEAN PW VALUES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1.25 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL KS
TO NEAR 1.75" ACROSS SOUTHERN KS BY MIDDAY MONDAY. IT'S QUITE LIKELY
THE DAILY MAX PW VALUES WILL BE SHATTERED AT OUN AND TOP RAOB
SITES (1.18" AND 1.26" RESPECTIVELY). TO FURTHER CONVEY THIS
UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS, LATEST SREF PW ANOMALIES RANGE FROM
1-1.3" ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR 11/18. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS WAA
AND SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS AND MAY YIELD A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. MUCH STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE TROUGH AXIS TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND TRACKS FROM WEST
TX THROUGH EASTERN KS. SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AS LAPSE RATE PROFILES STEEPEN
WITH THE MIDLEVEL LOW PASSAGE. LIKE PRIOR FORECASTS CONVEYED,
THE STRONGEST WAA AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND MAY FOSTER A SHORT WINDOW FOR
JUST ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT
IS STRONGLY SHEARED AND WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR 2. AT THIS POINT, ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS EAST OF I-135. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
DEPART THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE 1-3". GIVEN THE
ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN
3" ARE POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS THE LOCATIONS OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS,
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE
SREF/EPS/NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2" ARE HIGHEST
(>80%). FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS KSU MESONET SITES
SUGGEST SOIL SATURATION IS EXCEEDING 70-80% A MOST SITES THROUGH
A DEPTH OF 20 CM. DESPITE THAT, FLASH-FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS
QUITE HIGH WITH 6 HOUR GUIDANCE GREATER THAN 3" ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN 3", WILL DEFER THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE, THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S/30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST/NORTHEAST BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z MONDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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