214
FXUS63 KICT 172343
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER JET SPANNING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD/STATIONARY
FRONT INTERSECTS KANSAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW WEAK SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS ALSO
RESPONSIBLE FOR A MODEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY, AS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON.
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT-RANGE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF HIGHLY-ANOMALOUS
COLUMN MOISTURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT, WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.25" TO 1.75" THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AS WITH PRIOR FORECASTS, VALUES SUCH AS THESE EXIST OUTSIDE OF 30-
YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS REGION AND TIME OF YEAR. THE INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK STORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN TONIGHT AS A
RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING SYSTEM. COVERAGE WILL EXPAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP NATURE OF THIS LOW, A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
(40-50 MPH) WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES FOR THESE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE ARE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY EFI
VALUES OF UP TO 0.8-0.94 AND SOT OF 1, WHICH BOTH SUGGEST
ANOMALOUSLY-STRONG WIND GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR REGIONS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND MAY EVENTUALLY BE
ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHERMORE, AFTERNOON
SURFACE HEATING IN THE DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG), WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 60-70 KTS. MARGINALLY-
SEVERE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
PERHAPS THE MOST IMPACTFUL ASPECT OF THIS UPCOMING EVENT REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NBM/HREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1-3" THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON STORM TRACKS. CHANCES FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 2" REMAIN HIGHEST (>80%) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS PER THE
NBM/HREF ENSEMBLES. AS SUCH, THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING EVEN MORE OF THE REGION OUT OF DROUGHT STATUS AS WE LOOK AHEAD
TO THE OFFICIAL DRY SEASON.
A SECOND, WEAKER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LATTER SYSTEM, WITH SEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S) AND NIGHTTIME LOWS (UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S) EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING
NORTH TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED LOW CIGS.
850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL START TO RAMP-UP IN A FEW
HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO
LIFT NORTH OUT OF OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KICT-KHUT-KCNU
IN THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME WITH PEAK INTENSITY IN THE 11-16Z TIME
FRAME. SHOULD ALSO START TO SEE SOME THUNDER MIXED-IN AFTER
AROUND 10Z ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. SO CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT THROUGH MON WITH SOME
LIFR ALSO POSSIBLE WITH CIGS AND LOW VIS WITH THE HIGHER
RAINFALL INTENSITY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL
THIS MONTH MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. ADDITIONALLY,
IMPACTS TO MAIN-STEM RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON AS THEY
RESPOND TO DOWNSTREAM RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT
WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS FOR NOW AS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING RESPONSE TIMING REMAINS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
HYDROLOGY...JWK
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