283
FXUS63 KICT 180501
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER JET SPANNING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD/STATIONARY
FRONT INTERSECTS KANSAS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW WEAK SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS ALSO
RESPONSIBLE FOR A MODEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY, AS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S IN CENTRAL KANSAS
TO THE UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON.
BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHORT-RANGE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF HIGHLY-ANOMALOUS
COLUMN MOISTURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT, WITH PW VALUES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.25" TO 1.75" THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AS WITH PRIOR FORECASTS, VALUES SUCH AS THESE EXIST OUTSIDE OF 30-
YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS REGION AND TIME OF YEAR. THE INITIATION OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK STORMS IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDOWN TONIGHT AS A
RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF THE ONCOMING SYSTEM. COVERAGE WILL EXPAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW THROUGH THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP NATURE OF THIS LOW, A VERY
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
(40-50 MPH) WITHIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER CHANCES FOR THESE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE ARE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY EFI
VALUES OF UP TO 0.8-0.94 AND SOT OF 1, WHICH BOTH SUGGEST
ANOMALOUSLY-STRONG WIND GUSTS. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR REGIONS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AND MAY EVENTUALLY BE
ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHERMORE, AFTERNOON
SURFACE HEATING IN THE DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG), WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 60-70 KTS. MARGINALLY-
SEVERE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
PERHAPS THE MOST IMPACTFUL ASPECT OF THIS UPCOMING EVENT REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. NBM/HREF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 1-3" THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON STORM TRACKS. CHANCES FOR TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXCEEDING 2" REMAIN HIGHEST (>80%) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS PER THE
NBM/HREF ENSEMBLES. AS SUCH, THIS LATEST SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING EVEN MORE OF THE REGION OUT OF DROUGHT STATUS AS WE LOOK AHEAD
TO THE OFFICIAL DRY SEASON.
A SECOND, WEAKER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LATTER SYSTEM, WITH SEASONABLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS (UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S) AND NIGHTTIME LOWS (UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S) EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA
WIDE ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN KS AHEAD OF OUR POTENT
UPPER WAVE WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO BE SEEING SHOWERS BY
09Z. IN ADDITION, IFR CEILINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN LIFTING NORTH AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KS IN A FEW HOURS. SOME POCKETS OF LIFR WILL
ALSO BE MIXED-IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. STILL THINKING
THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE 12-17Z TIME
FRAME WITH KICT-KHUT HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE STORMS.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT QUICKLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
AROUND 21Z BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL KS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AREAS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL
THIS MONTH MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. ADDITIONALLY,
IMPACTS TO MAIN-STEM RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON AS THEY
RESPOND TO DOWNSTREAM RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT
WILL DEFER TO LATER FORECASTS FOR NOW AS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING RESPONSE TIMING REMAINS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
HYDROLOGY...JWK
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