801
FXUS63 KICT 180804
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
204 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
- A STRAY STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AS OF 2 AM, THE WELL-ADVERTISED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WAS LIFTING ACROSS
THE MEXICAN BORDER INTO WEST TX. IN RESPONSE TO ITS APPROACH, AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
EASTERN KS THROUGH EASTERN NM. THIS ZONE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE BY MIDDAY. AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, THE DRY SLOT OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. THIS WILL SHUNT THE AXIS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, NO FLOOD WATCH
ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED WITH 6 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINING
GREATER THAN 3" FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE APPROACH OF THE
MIDLEVEL TROUGH, LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE OF
CLOUD COVER. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT 300-500
J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 BY 1
PM. THIS ZONE CORRESPONDS TO BOTH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MIDLEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS AND NORTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE. TREMENDOUS
SPEED SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES NEAR 50 KT. GIVEN OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MIDLEVEL LOW,
WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SOME HINT OF SUBTLE
BACKING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE LOW. ALL OF THAT TO SAY, IT APPEARS A SECONDARY ZONE OF
CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY. GIVEN THE STOUT WIND PROFILE IN PLACE, DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. NOW THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LARGELY HINGE ON HOW
THE CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL TEND TO INCREASE WITH ANY UPDRAFT REVEALING SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS AND A DEVIANT STORM MOTION SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE-
NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE
VORTICITY INGESTION INTO THE UPDRAFT, MAINLY IN THE SURFACE TO 500M
OR 1 KM LAYER WITH UPWARDS OF 150-200 M2/S2 OF STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WITHIN THAT SAME LAYER. AT THIS POINT THE ZONE OF GREATEST
CONCERN FOR TORNADOES EXTENDS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ANTHONY
TO HUTCHINSON TO SALINA AND WEST OF A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO ARKANSAS
CITY. ONE LAST KEY POINT, ANY STORM THIS AFTERNOON (INCLUDING ANY
POTENTIAL TORNADIC STORMS) WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AT 55-65 MPH. SHORT RANGE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ANY SHIFTS IN THIS ZONE OF
GREATEST CONCERN.
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE PREVIOUS TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE, THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA
WIDE ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN KS AHEAD OF OUR POTENT
UPPER WAVE WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO BE SEEING SHOWERS BY
09Z. IN ADDITION, IFR CEILINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN LIFTING NORTH AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND WILL EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KS IN A FEW HOURS. SOME POCKETS OF LIFR WILL
ALSO BE MIXED-IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MON. STILL THINKING
THE MOST INTENSE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE 12-17Z TIME
FRAME WITH KICT-KHUT HAVING THE BEST SHOT TO SEE STORMS.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT QUICKLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
AROUND 21Z BUT SOME LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL KS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL
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