100
FXUS63 KICT 181945
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
145 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
- WINDY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH ABOUT 5-7 PM THIS EVENING, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ANTHONY TO KINGMAN TO LYONS TO LINCOLN, AND INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AMIDST COLD AIR ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-60S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LOW-END BUOYANCY (CAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OR
LESS). GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES, LOW-TOPPED MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY,
WOULDN'T THINK HAIL SIZE WOULD GET ANY LARGER THAN ROUGHLY
DIMES, AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN INTO THE
DOWNDRAFT FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE-LEVEL WINDS. WHILE TORNADO
POTENTIAL ISN'T GREAT GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
HODOGRAPH SHAPE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, BUOYANCY CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AMIDST DECENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUSTAINED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELL.
ADDITIONALLY, STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-135, AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, SO EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM.
THE MAIN STORY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEASONABLE TO SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S-30S. A
MODEST WARM- UP IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND, WITH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTING COOLER/COLDER WEATHER
RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION-WISE, DRY NORTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AFTER
THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
RAIN WILL BE RATHER WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GENERALLY
EAST OF I-135, AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CHURNS OVER MID-AMERICA. THINKING A
HANDFUL OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS IN VICINITY OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
A FEW STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AMIDST STRONG SHEAR. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE STOUT/GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, TURNING
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING-TONIGHT, AS THE STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHERMORE, WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS WILL SWITCH TO CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING, AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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