197
FXUS63 KICT 182350
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
- WINDY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THROUGH ABOUT 5-7 PM THIS EVENING, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM ANTHONY TO KINGMAN TO LYONS TO LINCOLN, AND INTO
EASTERN KANSAS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AMIDST COLD AIR ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-60S SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME LOW-END BUOYANCY (CAPE VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG OR
LESS). GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES, LOW-TOPPED MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY,
WOULDN'T THINK HAIL SIZE WOULD GET ANY LARGER THAN ROUGHLY
DIMES, AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN INTO THE
DOWNDRAFT FOR LOCALIZED SEVERE-LEVEL WINDS. WHILE TORNADO
POTENTIAL ISN'T GREAT GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
HODOGRAPH SHAPE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, BUOYANCY CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AMIDST DECENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUSTAINED LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELL.
ADDITIONALLY, STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-135, AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, SO EXTENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM.
THE MAIN STORY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEASONABLE TO SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S-30S. A
MODEST WARM- UP IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND, WITH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTING COOLER/COLDER WEATHER
RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION-WISE, DRY NORTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AFTER
THIS EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING AND LOW CIGS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INTENSE UPPER LOW IS QUICKLY LIFTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA. STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS,
WHERE GUSTS IN THE 40KT RANGE WILL BE COMMON. SPEEDS SHOULD
QUICKLY COME DOWN AFTER 03Z. MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST SO THE SITES CURRENTLY
AT MVFR CAN ONLY EXPECT THOSE CIGS THROUGH AROUND 03Z AT THE
LATEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR CONDITIONS FROM 06Z ON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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