082
FXUS63 KICT 192315
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- WARM UP THIS WEEKEND.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY FORECAST EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN CONCERT WITH A
TIGHT MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ON THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO REPORT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, LOWERING CLOUD BASES SUGGEST AT LEAST
SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE GROUND. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS,
ADDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM ST JOHN TO WICHITA TO COFFEYVILLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION, AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
COOLEST DAYS LOOK TO BE THU-FRI, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S-50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S-LOW 30S. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S-60S THIS WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY LIKELY THE
WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS.
BY NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION, AS INCREASING CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING USHERS IN COOLER
CANADIAN AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 40S OR COLDER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S-30S LOOK PROBABLE BY EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONCE WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST, AS THE DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS PROGRESSES VARIOUS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER, A MAJOR PRECIPITATION-MAKER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
VIRGA/HIGH-BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KS, SO
MAINTAINED VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AT TERMINALS IN THE AREA TO REFLECT
THIS. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 14-16Z AND
LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
STOUT/GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE 20S TO LOW 30S PERCENT COULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-END VERY HIGH
GRASSFIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
KANSAS. RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
EXTREME/CRITICAL GRASSFIRE DANGER. AFTER WEDNESDAY, GRASSFIRE DANGER
LOOKS RELATIVELY MODEST TO LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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