674
FXUS63 KICT 200931
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK,
GRADUAL WARM UP THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND KEEPING OUR AREA DRY. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL START OFF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY HENCE BREEZY TO AT
TIMES WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER
TODAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA TOMORROW KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S.
HOWEVER, THIS WARMER AIR WON'T LAST LONG AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THIS WILL OPEN THE GATE FOR COOLER AIR TO DIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW,
CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION, TIMING, AND STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO SPECULATE ABOUT WHICH DAYS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 14-16Z AND LASTING
THROUGH SUNDOWN. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LLWS AT CNU AFTER 02Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT FOR A MENTION. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO PREVAIL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...JWK
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