700
FXUS63 KICT 151714
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1114 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
YESTERDAY'S MID/UPPER TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD FOG, SOME DENSE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM BUT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG AND CLOUDS TO MIX OUT
BY AROUND 15Z FOR MOST AREAS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
DECEMBER ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR
TWO IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS BUT BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE.
A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUE WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN.
WED-SAT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE AREA. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK TO
THE AREA ON THU, ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ON
THU WITH COOLER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KS THIS
EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER 21Z AND TURN TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KS
WITH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE AREA AROUND
00Z. FOR NOW FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RUN WITH IFR CIGS AT KCNU
THIS EVENING WITH SOME BR ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIFT BY MON MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE AT THE REMAINING SITES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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